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Persuasion Bias, Social Influence, And Unidimensional Opinions

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Author Info
Peter M. Demarzo
Dimitri Vayanos
Jeffrey Zwiebel
Abstract

We propose a boundedly rational model of opinion formation in which individuals are subject to persuasion bias; that is, they fail to account for possible repetition in the information they receive. We show that persuasion bias implies the phenomenon of social influence, whereby one's influence on group opinions depends not only on accuracy, but also on how well-connected one is in the social network that determines communication. Persuasion bias also implies the phenomenon of unidimensional opinions; that is, individuals' opinions over a multidimensional set of issues converge to a single "left-right" spectrum. We explore the implications of our model in several natural settings, including political science and marketing, and we obtain a number of novel empirical implications. © 2001 the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 118 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 909-968
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:qjecon:v:118:y:2003:i:3:p:909-968

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  1. Ilan Yaniv & Shoham Choshen-Hillel & Maxim Milyavsky, 2008. "Spurious Consensus and Opinion Revision: Why Might People Be More Confident in Their Less Accurate Judgments?," Discussion Paper Series dp492, Center for Rationality and Interactive Decision Theory, Hebrew University, Jerusalem. [Downloadable!]
  2. Daron Acemoglu & Munther A. Dahleh & Ilan Lobel & Asuman Ozdaglar, 2008. "Bayesian Learning in Social Networks," NBER Working Papers 14040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Garicano, Luis & Posner, Richard A., 2005. "Intelligence Failures: An Organizational Economics Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 5186, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Leif Brandes & Katja Rost, . "Media, Limited Attention and the Propensity of Individuals to Buy Stocks," Working Papers 0098, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU). [Downloadable!]
  5. Christopher Spencer, 2005. "Consensus Formation in Monetary Policy Committees," Department of Economics Discussion Papers 1505, Department of Economics, University of Surrey. [Downloadable!]
  6. Brian G. Knight & Chun-Fang Chiang, 2008. "Media Bias and Influence: Evidence from Newspaper Endorsements," NBER Working Papers 14445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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