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A Theory Of Insidious Regionalism

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John McLaren
Abstract

This paper presents an interpretation of rising regionalism in world trade as a coordination failure, based on (i) sector-specific sunk costs in production, and (ii) "friction" in trade negotiation. Given these elements, if a regional trade bloc is expected to form, private agents will make investments that will make bloc member countries more specialized toward each other, but bloc and nonbloc countries mutually less specialized. This diminishes the ex post demand for multilateral free trade. Thus, the expected supply of regionalism generates its own demand, creating a Pareto-inferior equilibrium. © 2001 the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 117 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 571-608
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:qjecon:v:117:y:2002:i:2:p:571-608

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  1. Carsten Herrmann-Pillath, 2006. "The true story of wine and cloth, or: building blocks of an evolutionary political economy of international trade," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 383-417, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hyejoon Im, 2004. "Trading Blocs and Foreign Direct Investment: Endogenous Coalition Structure," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 532, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  3. Willmann, Gerald & Blanchard, Emily, 2007. "Political Stasis or Protectionist Rut? Policy Mechanisms for Trade Reform in a Democracy," Economics Working Papers 2007,21, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Richard Baldwin, 2007. "Multilateralising Regionalism: Sphagetti Bowls as building Blocs on the Path to Global Free Trade," Working Papers id:1231, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Chad Bown & Meredith Crowley, 2003. "Trade deflection and trade depression," Working Paper Series WP-03-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Baldwin, Richard, 2008. "Big-Think Regionalism: a Critical Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 6874, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Meredith A. Crowley, 2003. "An introduction to the WTO and GATT," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 42-57. [Downloadable!]
  8. Eric Bond, 2009. "Paths of efficient self-enforcing trade agreements," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 85-104, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Baldwin, Richard & Rieder, Roland, 2007. "A Test of Endogenous Trade Bloc Formation Theory on EU Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6389, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Itai Agur, 2007. "The US Trade Deficit, the Decline of the WTO and the Rise of Regionalism," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/17, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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