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Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment Reconsidered

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Author Info
Brainard, S Lael
Cutler, David M

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Abstract

This paper develops a new measure of reallocation shocks based on the variance of industry stock market excess returns to assess the contribution of sectoral reallocation to unemployment in the postwar U.S. economy. The Beveridge Curve relationship is used to establish that this series isolates reallocation shocks. Reallocati on shocks are found to explain only a moderate share of the fluctuation s in aggregate unemployment on average over the period. However, reallocation accounted for a substantial share of increases in unemployment in several episodes particularly the mid-l970s. Reallocation shocks also account for a larger share of fluctuations in unemployment of longer durations than of shorter durations. Copyright 1993, the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 108 (1993)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 219-43
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:qjecon:v:108:y:1993:i:1:p:219-43

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  1. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2000. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," NBER Working Papers 7590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Howard J. Wall & Gylfi Zoega, 2003. "U. S. regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment," Working Papers 2003-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Giovanni Gallipoli & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2008. "Aggregate Shocks vs Reallocation Shocks: an Appraisal of the Applied Literature," Working Paper Series 27-08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
  4. Gianluigi Pelloni & Wolfgang Polasek, . "Intersectoral Labour Reallocation and Employment Volatility: A Bayesian Analysis using a VAR-GARCH-M model," Discussion Papers 99/4, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ossama Mikhail & Curtis J. Eberwein & Jagdish Handa, 2003. "The Measurement of Persistence and Hysteresis in Aggregate Unemployment," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0311002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hesna Genay & Prakash Loungani, 1997. "Labor market fluctuations in Japan and the U.S.--how similar are they?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 15-28. [Downloadable!]
  7. Prakash Loungani & Bharat Trehan, 1997. "Explaining unemployment: sectoral vs aggregate shocks," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-15. [Downloadable!]
  8. Susanto Basu & John Fernald & Miles Kimball, 1998. "Are technology improvements contractionary?," International Finance Discussion Papers 625, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Patrick Kline, 2008. "Understanding Sectoral Labor Market Dynamics: An Equilibrium Analysis of the Oil and Gas Field Services Industry," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1645, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  10. von Greiff, Camilo, 2007. "Specialization in Higher Education and Economic Growth," Research Papers in Economics 2007:13, Stockholm University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Andrew Figura, 2003. "The effect of restructuring on unemployment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  12. Andrew Figura, 2002. "Is reallocation related to the cycle? A look at permanent and temporary job flows," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  13. Yin-Wong Cheung & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Sectoral Trends and Cycles in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1996. "On the Driving Forces Behind Cyclical Movement, in Employment and Job Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 5775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Keith Sill, 1998. "Restructuring during recessions: a silver lining in the cloud?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 15-31. [Downloadable!]
  16. repec:wop:ubisop:0004 is not listed on IDEAS
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