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Did the Debt Crisis Cause the Investment Crisis?

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Author Info
Warner, Andrew M

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Abstract

There is now a large literature that attributes the investment decline in heavily indebted countries to the effects of the international debt crisis which began in 1982. However, these countries also faced falling export prices and high world real interest rates in the early 1980s, and these shocks could have directly caused investment to decline. One way to test for debt effects is to see whether equations without any debt-related information can nevertheless forecast the investment declines that these countries experienced. This paper shows that such equations can forecast investment in many indebted countries, and thus casts doubt on many debt-related explanations for the investment declines. Copyright 1992, the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 107 (1992)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 1161-86
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:qjecon:v:107:y:1992:i:4:p:1161-86

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Cukierman, Alex, 1980. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment under Risk Neutrality with Endogenous Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 462-75, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Cleaning Up Third World Debt without Getting Taken to the Cleaners," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 31-42, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Dani Rodrik, 1989. "Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 2999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Jaime Marquez & Neil R. Ericsson, 1990. "Evaluating the predictive performance of trade-account models," International Finance Discussion Papers 377, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Panos C. Afxentiou & Apostolos Serletis, 1995. "The Impact Of International Indebtedness On The Import-Export Sectors Of Developing Countries," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 73-87, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Imbs, Jean & Ranciere, Romain, 2005. "The overhang hangover," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3673, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Peter Hjertholm & Jytte Laursen & Howard White, 2000. "Macroeconomic Issues in Foreign Aid," Discussion Papers 00-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Dulleck, Uwe & Foster, Neil, 2008. "Imported Equipment, Human Capital and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(2), pages 233-250, September. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Talan B. Iscan, 1998. "Financing Constraints and Investment Decline in Mexico," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive fdis98, Dalhousie, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Sebastian Edwards & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2004. "Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers," Business School Working Papers exchangerates, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Toan Quoc Nguyen & Rina Bhattacharya & Benedict J. Clements, 2004. "External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 03/249, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. A. Dalmazzo & Guido De Blasio, 2001. "Resources and Incentives to Reform: A Model and Some Evidence on Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 01/86, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hendricks, Lutz, . "Equipment Investment and Growth In Developing Countries," Working Papers 97/5, Arizona State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Tim Allen & Diana Weinhold, 2000. "Dropping the debt for the new millennium: is it such a good idea?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 857-875.
  11. Flores Prieto, Pedro & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Andrade Olivas, Cesar, 2007. "Evidencia empirica sobre deuda externa, inversion, y crecimiento en Mexico, 1980-2003
    [Empirical evidence on foreign debt, investment, and growth in Mexico, 1980-2003]    ," MPRA Paper 9497, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
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