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Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles also Have Large Business Cycles?

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Author Info

  • Beaulieu, J Joseph
  • MacKie-Mason, Jeffrey K
  • Miron, Jeffrey A

Abstract

The authors show that there is a strong, positive correlation across countries and industries between the standard deviation of the seasonal component and the standard deviation of the nonseasonal component of aggregate variables. After documenting this stylized fact, the authors discuss possible explanations and develop a model that generates their empirical finding. The main feature of the model is that firms endogenously choose their degree of technological flexibility as a function of the amounts of seasonal and nonseasonal variation in demand. Although this model is intended to be illustrative, the authors find evidence supporting one of its key empirical implications. Copyright 1992, the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 107 (1992)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 621-56

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:qjecon:v:107:y:1992:i:2:p:621-56

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  1. Miron, J.A., 1988. "A Cross-Country Comparaison Of Seasonal Cycles And Business Cycles," Papers 89-07, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  2. Simon Kuznets, 1933. "Seasonal Variations in Industry and Trade," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn33-1, May.
  3. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
  4. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
  5. Robert B. Barsky & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1988. "The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 2688, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Rotemberg, Julio J & Saloner, Garth, 1989. "The Cyclical Behavior of Strategic Inventories," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 73-97, February.
  7. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(2), pages 433-494.
  8. repec:fth:harver:1418 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
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