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Credibility and Stabilization

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Dornbusch, Rudiger

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Abstract

This paper deals with stabilization as a one-shot problem to ask what "credibility" means in a world where programs will succeed with probability one. A model is spelled out where the equilibrium program has some ex ante probability of failure. The model draws attention to the factors that raise or lower the probability of success of a stabilization program and, thus, offers a positive theory of stabilization. Reputation that emerges as a central element in repeated games has no role in this model. Copyright 1991, the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 106 (1991)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 837-50
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:qjecon:v:106:y:1991:i:3:p:837-50

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  1. Faini, Riccardo & de Melo, Jaime, 1990. "Adjustment, investment, and the real exchange rate in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 473, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Farhad Noorbakhsh & Alberto Paloni, 2007. "Learning from structural adjustment: why selectivity may not be the key to successful programmes in Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(7), pages 927-948. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alessandro Missale & Francesco Giavazzi & Pierpaolo Benigno, 1997. "Managing the Public Debt in Fiscal Stabilizations: The Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Dani Rodrik, 1989. "Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 2999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Neven Valev & John A. Carlson, 2004. "Beliefs about Exchange-Rate Stability: Survey Evidence from the Currency Board in Bulgaria," International Studies Program Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0424, International Studies Program, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Alberto Alesina & Allan Drazen, 1989. "Why are Stabilizations Delayed?," NBER Working Papers 3053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Corbo, Vittorio & Fischer, Stanley, 1991. "Adjustment programs and Bank support : rationale and main results," Policy Research Working Paper Series 582, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Fofack, Hippolyte, 2009. "Causality between external debt and capital flight in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5042, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 1997. "Credibility and Signaling in Disinflation- a Cross Country Examination," Cahiers de recherche 9712, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
  10. David Hauner & Jirí Jonáš & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2007. "Policy Credibility and Sovereign Credit--The Case of New EU Member States," IMF Working Papers 07/1, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Establishing Credibility: The Role of Foreign Advisors," NBER Working Papers 11429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Sebastian Edwards, 1993. "The Political Economy of Infaliton and Stabilization in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 4319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Cesar Martinelli, 2001. "Essays on Political Economy of Political Reform," Levine's Working Paper Archive 625018000000000135, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
  14. Francisco José Veiga, 2003. "The Political Economy of Failed Stabilization," NIPE Working Papers 13/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  15. Faini, Riccardo & de Melo, Jaime & Senhadji-Semlali, Abdel & Stanton, Julie, 1990. "Growth oriented adjustment programs : a statistical analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 426, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Marchesi, S., 2000. "Buybacks of Domestic Debt in Public Debt Management," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 573, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Carlos E. Zarazaga, 1995. "Hyperinflations and moral hazard in the appropriation of seigniorage: an empirical implementation with a calibration approach," Working Papers 95-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  18. Neven T. Valev & John A. Carlson, 2004. "Beliefs about Exchange-Rate Stability: Survey Evidence From the Currency Board in Bulgaria," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-705, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  19. Oya Celasun & Gaston R. Gelos & Alessandro Prati, 2004. "Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?," IMF Working Papers 04/111, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Svensson, Jakob, 1997. "When is Foreign Aid Policy Credible? - Aid Dependence and Conditionality," Seminar Papers 600, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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