This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Forecasting Pre-World War I Inflation: The Fisher Effect and the Gold Standard

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Barsky, Robert B
De Long, J Bradford

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The authors examine interest and inflation rates from 1879 to 1913. Deflation prior to 1896 was followed by inflation. Average U.S. inflation was 3.1 percentage points higher in the years after 1896, yet nominal interest rates were no higher after 1896. This nonadjustment of nominal rates would be consistent with rational expectations if inflation was not forecastable, and indeed univariate tests show little sign of serial correlation. But gold production does forecast inflation. The relationship between mining and inflation was such that expected inflation should have risen 300 basis points between 1890 and 1910. They consider explanations of this failure to foresee the shift in inflation after 1896 and conclude that it is not persuasive evidence that investors ignored relevant information, but does suggest great uncertainty about the appropriate model for analyzing the economy. Copyright 1991, the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0033-5533%28199108%29106%3A3%3C815%3AFPWIIT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-2&origin=repec
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 106 (1991)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 815-36
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:tpr:qjecon:v:106:y:1991:i:3:p:815-36

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/

Order Information:
Web: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journal-home.tcl?issn=00335533

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "Money and the Price Level under the Gold Standard," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(353), pages 13-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Barsky, Robert B & Summers, Lawrence H, 1988. "Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 528-50, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jakob B. Madsen, 2004. "The Equity Premium Puzzle and the Ex Post Bias," FRU Working Papers 2004/01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Luis Cat�o & G. A. Mackenzie, 2006. "Perspectives on Low Global Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 06/76, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. J. Bradford De Long, . "America's Peacetime Inflation: The 1970s," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _104, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1992. "Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?," NBER Working Papers 3995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Jakob B. Madsen, 2003. "The Equity Risk Premium and the Required Share Returns in a Tobin’s q Model," EPRU Working Paper Series 03-10, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. J. Bradford De Long, 1996. "America's Only Peacetime Inflation: The 1970s," NBER Historical Working Papers 0084, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Paul Evans & Xiaojun Wang, 2005. "A Tale of Two Effects," Working Papers 200506, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS also indexes software components.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-16.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.