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The Sources of Fluctuations in Aggregate Inventories and GNP

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  • West, Kenneth D

Abstract

A simple real linear-quadratic inventory model is used to determine how cost and demand shocks interacted to cause fluctuations in aggregate inventories and GNP in the United States, 1947-86. Cost shocks appear to be the predominant source of fluctuations in inventories and are largely, though not exclusively, responsible for the fact that GNP is more variable than final sales. Cost and demand shocks are of roughly equal importance for GNP. These estimates, however, are imprecise. With different, but plausible, values for a certain target inventory-sales ratio, cost shocks are less important than demand shocks for GNP fluctuations. Copyright 1990, the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 105 (1990)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 939-71

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:qjecon:v:105:y:1990:i:4:p:939-71

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Cited by:
  1. Keating, John W., 1996. "Structural information in recursive VAR orderings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1557-1580.
  2. Louis J. Maccini & Bartholomew Moore & Huntley Schaller, 2013. "Inventory Behavior with Permanent Sales Shocks," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2013-03, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
  3. Holly, Sean & Turner, Paul, 2001. "Inventory investment and asymmetric adjustment: Some evidence for the UK," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 251-260, August.
  4. Barrera, Carlos R., 2011. "Impacto amplificador del ajuste de inventarios ante choques de demanda según especificaciones flexibles," Working Papers 2011-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  5. Laffargue, Jean-Pierre & Malgrange, Pierre & Pujol, Thierry, 1992. "Une maquette trimestrielle de l’économie française avec anticipations rationnelles et concurrence monopolistique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 225-261, mars et j.
  6. Dimelis, Sophia P., 2001. "Inventory investment over the business cycle in the EU and the US," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-3), pages 1-8, May.
  7. Ronayne, David, 2011. "Which Impulse Response Function?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 971, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  8. Collard, Fabrice & Jacques, Jean-Francois, 1996. "Inventories cycle in an augmented RBC model," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-3), pages 9-19, August.
  9. Sangalli, Ilaria, 2013. "Inventory investment and financial constraints in the Italian manufacturing industry: A panel data GMM approach," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 157-178.
  10. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2005. "BAD Taxation: Disintermediation and Illiquidity in a Bank Account Debits Tax Model," Public Economics 0511019, EconWPA, revised 27 Nov 2005.
  11. Jeffrey Fuhrer & George Moore & Scott Schuh, 1993. "Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model: maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Yungsan Kim & Woon Gyu Choi, 2001. "Has Inventory Investment Been Liquidity-Constrained? Evidence from U.S. Panel Data," IMF Working Papers 01/122, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Keating, John W., 2000. "Macroeconomic Modeling with Asymmetric Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-28, January.
  14. Kenneth D. West, 1993. "Inventory Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1995. "A generalized variance bounds test with an application to the Holt et al. inventory model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 59-89.

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