The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation
AbstractThis paper provides empirical evidence on the information in the term structure for longer maturities about both future inflation and the term structure of real interest rates. The evidence indicates that there is substantial information in the longer maturity term structure about future inflation: the slope of the term structure does have a great deal of predictive power for future changes in inflation. On the other hand, at the longer maturities, the term structure of nominal interest rates contains very little information about the term structure of real interest rates. These results are strikingly different from those found for very short-term maturities, six months or less, in previous work. For maturities of six months or less, the term structure contains no information about the future path of inflation, but it does contain a great deal of information about the term structure of real interest rates. The evidence in this paper does indicate that, at longer maturities, the term structure of interest rates can be used to help assess future inflationary pressures: when the slope of the term structure steepens, it is an indication that the inflation rate will rise in the future and when the slope falls, it is an indication that the inflation rate will fall. However, we must still remain cautious about using the evidence presented here to advocate that the Federal Reserve should target on the term structure in conducting monetary policy. A change in Federal Reserve operating procedures which focuses on the term structure may well cause the relationship between the term structure and future inflation to shift, with the result that the term structure no longer remains an accurate guide to the path of future inflation. If this were to occur, Federal Reserve monetary policy could go far astray by focusing on the term structure of interest rates.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by MIT Press in its journal Quarterly Journal of Economics.
Volume (Year): 105 (1990)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/
Other versions of this item:
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Huizinga, John & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986.
"Monetary policy regime shifts and the unusual behavior of real interest rates,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 231-274, January.
- John Huizinga & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1986. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and the Unusual Behavior of Real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Huizinga & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1985.
"Inflation and Real Interest Rates on Assets with Different Risk Characteristics,"
NBER Working Papers
1333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Huizinga, John & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1984. " Inflation and Real Interest Rates on Assets with Different Risk Characteristics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 699-712, July.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988.
"Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models,"
NBER Working Papers
1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Startz, Richard, 1982.
"Do forecast errors or term premia really make the difference between long and short rates?,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 323-329, November.
- Richard Startz, . "Do Forecast Errors or Term Premia Really Make the Difference Between Long and Short Rates?," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 08-81, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Richard Startz, . "Do Forecast Errors or Term Premia Really Make the Difference Between Long and Short Rates?," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 8-81, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
- Jones, David S. & Vance Roley, V., 1983. "Rational expectations and the expectations model of the term structure : A test using weekly data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 453-465, September.
- Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1987.
"The predictive power of the term structure during recent monetary regimes,"
8708, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1988. " The Predictive Power of the Term Structure during Recent Monetary Regimes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 339-56, June.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Karie Kirkpatrick).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.