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Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States

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  • Fair, Ray C

Abstract

There has been much recent discussion about the ultimate sources of macroeconomic variability. A number of authors attribute most of this variability to only a few sources, sometimes only one. Altho ugh there may be only a few important sources, this is far from obvio us, since economies seem complicated. The purpose of this paper is to provide quantitative estimates of various sources of variability usi ng a U.S. econometric model. Stochastic simulation is used to estimat e how much the overall variances of real GNP and the GNP deflator are reduced when various shocks are suppressed in the model. Copyright 1988, the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 103 (1988)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 313-32

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:qjecon:v:103:y:1988:i:2:p:313-32

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Cited by:
  1. Boschen, John F. & Mills, Leonard O., 1995. "Tests of long-run neutrality using permanent monetary and real shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 25-44, February.
  2. Victor Zarnowitz, 1997. "Business Cycles Observed and Assessed: Why and How They Matter," NBER Working Papers 6230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Einar Bowitz & Stein Inge Hove, 1996. "Business cycles and fiscal policy: Norway 1973-93," Discussion Papers 178, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  4. Dag Kolsrud, 2008. "Stochastic Ceteris Paribus Simulations," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 21-43, February.
  5. Rizwan Tahir, 1994. "Estimating the Quantitative Importance of Various Sources of Macroeconomic Variability," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1073-1087.
  6. Jaime Marquez & Neil R. Ericsson, 1990. "Evaluating the predictive performance of trade-account models," International Finance Discussion Papers 377, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Bergman, Michael, 1996. "International evidence on the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1237-1258, June.

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