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A Time Series Analysis of Representative Agent Models of Consumption and Leisure Choice under Uncertainty

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  • Eichenbaum, Martin S
  • Hansen, Lars Peter
  • Singleton, Kenneth J

Abstract

This paper investigates empirically a model of aggregate consumption and leisure decisions in which utility from goods and leisure is nontime-separable. The nonseparability of p refer-ences accommodates intertemporal substitution or complementarit y of leisure and thereby affects the comovements in aggregate compens ation and hours worked. These cross relations are examined empiricall y using postwar monthly U.S. data on quantities, real wages, and the real return on the one-month treasury bill. The estimated values of t he parameters governing preferences differ significantly from the val ues assumed in several studies of real business models. Several possi ble explanations of these discrepancies are discussed. Copyright 1988, the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 103 (1988)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 51-78

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:qjecon:v:103:y:1988:i:1:p:51-78

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  1. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Lars Peter Hansen, 1987. "Estimating Models with Intertemporal Substitution Using Aggregate Time Series Data," NBER Working Papers 2181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  4. Rubinstein, Mark, 1974. "An aggregation theorem for securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 225-244, September.
  5. Brown, Bryan W & Maital, Shlomo, 1981. "What Do Economists Know? An Empirical Study of Experts' Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(2), pages 491-504, March.
  6. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Rapping, Leonard A, 1969. "Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(5), pages 721-54, Sept./Oct.
  7. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  8. Mankiw, N Gregory & Rotemberg, Julio J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1985. "Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 225-51, February.
  9. Pollak, Robert A, 1970. "Habit Formation and Dynamic Demand Functions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(4), pages 745-63, Part I Ju.
  10. Muellbauer, John N J, 1981. "Linear Aggregation in Neoclassical Labour Supply," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 21-36, January.
  11. Gallant, A. Ronald & Jorgenson, Dale W., 1979. "Statistical inference for a system of simultaneous, non-linear, implicit equations in the context of instrumental variable estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 275-302.
  12. Altonji, Joseph G, 1982. "The Intertemporal Substitution Model of Labour Market Fluctuations: An Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(5), pages 783-824, Special I.
  13. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Ashenfelter, Orley C & Card, David, 1982. "Time Series Representations of Economic Variables and Alternative Models of the Labour Market," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(5), pages 761-81, Special I.
  15. Hall, Robert E., 1980. "Labor supply and aggregate fluctuations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 7-33, January.
  16. Brennan, M. J. & Kraus, Alan, 1978. "Necessary Conditions for Aggregation in Securities Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 407-418, September.
  17. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
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