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Optimal Price and Inventory Adjustment in an Open-Economy Model of the Business Cycle

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  • Flood, Robert P
  • Hodrick, Robert J

Abstract

This paper develops an open-economy macroeconomic model which can be used to interpret the observed fluctuations in output, inventories,prices,and exchange rates in the medium-sized economies of the world. The model is consistent with the major empirical regularities that have been discovered in studies of business cycles as closed-economy phenomena and in empirical studies of prices and exchange rates. The empirical regularities are (i) changes in the nominal money supply cause real output fluctuations, (ii) deviations of output from a "natural rate" show persistence, (iii)exchangerates are more volatile than nominal prices of goods, and (iv) depreciations of the currency coincide with deteriorations of the terms of trade. A controversial aspect of the model is that only unperceived money has real effects. The channel through which these effects arise involves a misperception by rational maximizing firms of the true demand that they will face after having set prices. The firms learn about their environment from equilibrium asset prices, and the dynamics of the model reflect the optimal response of inventory-holding firms rather than ad hoc price dynamics.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 100 (1985)
Issue (Month): 5 (Supp.)
Pages: 887-914

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:qjecon:v:100:y:1985:i:5:p:887-914

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  1. Fair, Ray C, 1979. "An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 701-18, August.
  2. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 22-51, February.
  3. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January.
  4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Equilibrium in a Pure Currency Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 203-20, April.
  5. Leiderman, Leonardo, 1980. "Macroeconometric testing of the rational expectations and structural neutrality hypotheses for the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 69-82, January.
  6. King, Robert G, 1982. "Monetary Policy and the Information Content of Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(2), pages 247-79, April.
  7. Frenkel, Jacob A & Mussa, Michael L, 1980. "The Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets and Measures of Turbulence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 374-81, May.
  8. Gray, Jo Anna, 1976. "Wage indexation: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 221-235, April.
  9. Martin Feldstein & Alan Auerbach, 1976. "Inventory Behavior in Durable-Goods Manufacturing: The Target-Adjustment Model," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(2), pages 351-408.
  10. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 207-37, April.
  11. Kohn, Meir, 1981. "In Defense of the Finance Constraint," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 19(2), pages 177-95, April.
  12. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
  13. Bennett T. McCallum, 1982. "Macroeconomics After a Decade of Rational Expectations: Some Critical Issues," NBER Working Papers 1050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Michael C. Lovell, 1959. "Manufacturers' Inventories, Sales Expectations, and the Acceleration Principle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 86, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Makin, John H, 1982. "Anticipated Money, Inflation Uncertainty and Real Economic Activity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 126-34, February.
  16. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1982. "The output-inflation relationship : An inventory-adjustment approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 163-184.
  17. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Dale W. Henderson & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1981. "The information content of the interest rate and optimal monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 192, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. John H. Makin, 1981. "Anticipated Money, Inflation Uncertainty, and Real Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 0760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Robert J. Barro & Mark Rush, 1979. "Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 0339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  22. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1981. "Flexible Exchange Rates, Prices, and the Role of "News": Lessons from the 1970s," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 665-705, August.
  23. Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Inventories and Sticky Prices: More on the Microfoundations of Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 0620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1983. "A rational expectations equilibrium model of inventories of finished goods and employment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 259-277.
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Cited by:
  1. Aizenman, Joshua, 1989. "Monopolistic competition, relative prices, and output adjustment in the open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 5-28, March.
  2. Aizenman, Joshua, 1989. "Market power and exchange rate adjustment in the presence of quotas," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3-4), pages 265-282, November.
  3. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A semi-classical model of price-level adjustment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 251-284, December.
  4. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977 Elsevier.
  5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2002:i:5:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Michael Kiley, 2002. "The lead of output over inflation in sticky price models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(5), pages 1-7.
  7. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1986. "Money and the Open Economy Business Cycle: A Flexible Price Model," NBER Working Papers 1967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Joshua Aizenman, 1985. "Monopolistic Competition and Deviations from PPP," NBER Working Papers 1552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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