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Explaining Rare Events in International Relations

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Author Info
Gary King
Langche Zeng

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Abstract

Some of the most important phenomena in international conflict are coded as "rare events": binary dependent variables with dozens to thousands of times fewer events, such as wars and coups, than "nonevents." Unfortunately, rare events data are difficult to explain and predict, a problem stemming from at least two sources. First, and most important, the data-collection strategies used in international conflict studies are grossly inefficient. The fear of collecting data with too few events has led to data collections with huge numbers of observations but relatively few, and poorly measured, explanatory variables. As it turns out, more efficient sampling designs exist for making valid inferences, such as sampling all available events (wars, for example) and a tiny fraction of nonevents (peace). This enables scholars to save as much as 99 percent of their (nonfixed) data-collection costs or to collect much more meaningful explanatory variables. Second, logistic regression, and other commonly used statistical procedures, can underestimate the probability of rare events. We introduce some corrections that outperform existing methods and change the estimates of absolute and relative risks by as much as some estimated effects reported in the literature. We also provide easy-to-use methods and software that link these two results, enabling both types of corrections to work simultaneously. © 2001 The IO Foundation and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal International Organization.

Volume (Year): 55 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 693-715
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:intorg:v:55:y:2001:i:3:p:693-715

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  2. Joachim Wagner, 2006. "Are nascent entrepreneurs 'Jacks-of-all-trades’? A test of Lazear's theory of entrepreneurship with German data," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(20), pages 2415-2419, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Paic, Peter, 2006. "Existenzgründung und Einkommen Freier Berufe – Ergebnisse aus dem Sozio-oekonomischen Panel," MPRA Paper 5847, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Merz, Joachim & Paic, Peter, 2006. "Start-up success of freelancers New microeconometric evidence from the German Socio-Economic Panel," MPRA Paper 5737, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Joachim Wagner, 2005. ""Der Noth gehorchend, nicht dem eignen Trieb" - Nascent Necessity and Opportunity Entrepreneurs in Germany: Evidence from the Regional Entrepreneurship Monitor (REM)," IZA Discussion Papers 1608, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Merz, Joachim & Böhm, Paul, 2006. "Tägliche Arbeitszeitmuster und Einkommen von Freien Berufen – Neue Ergebnisse aus der deutschen Zeitbudgeterhebung," MPRA Paper 5842, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Wagner, Joachim, 2004. "What a Difference a Y Makes: Female and Male Nascent Entrepreneurs in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 1134, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Chollete, Lorán, 2009. "The Propagation of Financial Extremes," Discussion Papers 2008/25, Department of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ingrid Nielsen & Chris Nyland & Russell Smyth & Cherrie Jiuhua Zhu, 2005. "Perceptions of Subjective Economic Well-Being and Support for Market Reform among China's Urban Population," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 425-447, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Joachim Wagner, 2005. "Nascent Necessity and Opportunity Entrepreneurs in Germany. Evidence from the Regional Entrepreneurship Monitor (REM)," Labor and Demography 0506004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  11. Wagner, Joachim, 2004. "Are Young and Small Firms Hothouses for Nascent Entrepreneurs? Evidence from German Micro Data," IZA Discussion Papers 989, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  12. Joachim Wagner, 2005. "Nascent and infant entrepreneurs in Germany. Evidence from the Regional Entrepreneurship Monitor (REM)," Labor and Demography 0504010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Chollete, Lorán, 2008. "The Propagation of Financial Extremes: An Application to Subprime Market Spillovers," Discussion Papers 2008/2, Department of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  14. Conconi, Paola & Sahuguet, Nicolas & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2008. "Democratic Peace and Electoral Accountability¤," CEPR Discussion Papers 6908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Ari Hyytinen & Lotta Väänänen, 2002. "Government Funding of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises in Finland," Discussion Papers 832, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  16. Jonathan Levie, 2007. "Immigration, In-Migration, Ethnicity and Entrepreneurship in the United Kingdom," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 143-169, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Merz, Joachim & Paic, Peter, 2006. "Erfolgsfaktoren freiberuflicher Existenzgründung Neue mikroökonometrische Ergebnisse mit Daten des Sozio-ökonomischen Panels," MPRA Paper 5855, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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