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The Global Financial Crisis: Causes and Consequences

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  • Warwick J. McKibbin

    (Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU College of Business and Economics, Australian National University, ACT 0200, Australia.)

  • Andrew Stoeckel

    (Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU College of Business and Economics, Australian National University, ACT 0200, Australia.)

Abstract

This paper models the global financial crisis as a combination of shocks to global housing markets and sharp increases in risk premia of firms, households, and international investors; and finds that the shocks observed in financial markets can generate in the in the G-Cubed model (an intertemporal global model) the severe economic contraction in global trade and production currently being experienced in 2009. Our investigation shows that the distinction between the production and trade of durable and non-durable goods plays a key role in explaining the much larger contraction in trade than GDP experienced by most economies; and that the future of the global economy depends critically on whether the shocks to risk are expected to be permanent or temporary. (c) 2010 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Warwick J. McKibbin & Andrew Stoeckel, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis: Causes and Consequences," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 9(1), pages 54-86, Winter/Sp.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:9:y:2010:i:1:p:54-86
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    2. Henderson, Dale W. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 1993. "A comparison of some basic monetary policy regimes for open economies: implications of different degrees of instrument adjustment and wage persistence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 221-317, December.
    3. Warwick J. McKibbin & Andrew Stoeckel, 2009. "Modelling the global financial crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 25(4), pages 581-607, Winter.
    4. John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pearce, David & Stegman, Alison, 2007. "Long term projections of carbon emissions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 637-653.
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    1. Warwick J. McKibbin & Andrew Stoeckel, 2009. "Modelling the global financial crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 25(4), pages 581-607, Winter.
    2. Shah, Wasi Ul Hassan & Hao, Gang & Yan, Hong & Yasmeen, Rizwana & Padda, Ihtsham Ul Haq & Ullah, Assad, 2022. "The impact of trade, financial development and government integrity on energy efficiency: An analysis from G7-Countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    3. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2013. "A Global Approach to Energy and the Environment," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 995-1068, Elsevier.
    4. Warwick J. McKibbin & Andrew B. Stoeckel & YingYing Lu, 2014. "Global Fiscal Adjustment and Trade Rebalancing," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(7), pages 892-922, July.
    5. Ahmed, Abdullahi D. & Huo, Rui, 2018. "China–Africa financial markets linkages: Volatility and interdependence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1140-1164.
    6. Oguttu, Annet Wanyana, 2016. "Tax Base Erosion and Profit Shifting in Africa – Part 1: Africa’s Response to the OECD BEPS Action Plan," Working Papers 12802, Institute of Development Studies, International Centre for Tax and Development.
    7. Hasan Engin Duran & Ugo Fratesi, 2023. "Economic resilience and regionally differentiated cycles: Evidence from a turning point approach in Italy," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(2), pages 219-252, April.

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