A Time-Varying Risk Premium in the Term Structure of Bulk Shipping Freight Rates
AbstractThis paper presents a simple argument, based on logic and maritime economic theory alone, for rejecting the applicability of the expectations theory in bulk shipping freight markets. It is shown that the risk premium must be time varying and must, in a systematic fashion, depend upon freight market conditions and the duration of a period time charter. The signs of the risk premium attributable to the various risk factors are derived where possible and the conclusion is drawn that the theoretical net risk premium will usually be negative, but may change for a short-term period charter in a strong freight market. © 2005 LSE and the University of Bath
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by London School of Economics and University of Bath in its journal Journal of Transport Economics and Policy.
Volume (Year): 39 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
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Web page: http://www.bath.ac.uk/e-journals/jtep
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- Goulas, Lambros & Skiadopoulos, George, 2012. "Are freight futures markets efficient? Evidence from IMAREX," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 644-659.
- Alizadeh, Amir H. & Talley, Wayne K., 2011. "Vessel and voyage determinants of tanker freight rates and contract times," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 665-675, September.
- Amir Alizadeh & Wayne Talley, 2011. "Microeconomic determinants of dry bulk shipping freight rates and contract times," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 561-579, May.
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