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Network structure and naive sequential learning

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  • Dasaratha, Krishna

    (Department of Economics, Harvard University)

  • He, Kevin

    (Division of Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology and Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

We study a sequential-learning model featuring a network of naive agents with Gaussian information structures. Agents apply a heuristic rule to aggregate predecessors' actions. They weigh these actions according the strengths of their social connections to different predecessors. We show this rule arises endogenously when agents wrongly believe others act solely on private information and thus neglect redundancies among observations. We provide a simple linear formula expressing agents' actions in terms of network paths and use this formula to characterize the set of networks where naive agents eventually learn correctly. This characterization implies that, on all networks where later agents observe more than one neighbor, there exist disproportionately influential early agents who can cause herding on incorrect actions. Going beyond existing social-learning results, we compute the probability of such mislearning exactly. This allows us to compare likelihoods of incorrect herding, and hence expected welfare losses, across network structures. The probability of mislearning increases when link densities are higher and when networks are more integrated. In partially segregated networks, divergent early signals can lead to persistent disagreement between groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Dasaratha, Krishna & He, Kevin, 2020. "Network structure and naive sequential learning," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(2), May.
  • Handle: RePEc:the:publsh:3388
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kevin He & Jonathan Libgober, 2020. "Evolutionarily Stable (Mis)specifications: Theory and Applications," Papers 2012.15007, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    2. Enrique Urbano Arellano & Xinyang Wang, 2023. "Social Learning of General Rules," Papers 2310.15861, arXiv.org.
    3. Li, Wei & Tan, Xu, 2020. "Locally Bayesian learning in networks," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(1), January.
    4. Elchanan Mossel & Manuel Mueller‐Frank & Allan Sly & Omer Tamuz, 2020. "Social Learning Equilibria," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(3), pages 1235-1267, May.
    5. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2020. "Misinterpreting Others and the Fragility of Social Learning," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(6), pages 2281-2328, November.
    6. Sadler, Evan, 2020. "Innovation adoption and collective experimentation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 121-131.
    7. Dasaratha, Krishna & He, Kevin, 2021. "An experiment on network density and sequential learning," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 182-192.
    8. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2020. "Belief Convergence under Misspecified Learning: A Martingale Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2235R2, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Dec 2021.
    9. Simon Board & Moritz Meyer‐ter‐Vehn, 2021. "Learning Dynamics in Social Networks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2601-2635, November.
    10. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2020. "Belief Convergence under Misspecified Learning: A Martingale Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2235R3, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 2022.
    11. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2020. "Stability and Robustness in Misspecified Learning Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2235, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Network structure; sequential social learning; naive inference; mislearning; disagreement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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