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Building Up a Real Sector Business Confidence Index for Turkey

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Author Info

  • Ece Oral
  • Dilara Ece
  • Turknur Hamsici
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Abstract

The two major aims of this study are, firstly, to receive valuable insight into the Business Tendency Survey of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey and, secondly, to construct a real sector confidence index by using the questions of the Business Tendency Survey. The most important motivation behind constructing a real sector confidence index is to provide an indicator of short-term business conditions for economic policy makers and business managers by examining business managers' views on general business conditions and their future anticipations. The real sector confidence index is constructed in accordance with statistical criteria and economic theory. Afterwards, the performance of the index in tracking the cyclical features of industrial production index is tested.

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File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/research/cbreview/jan05-3.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its journal Central Bank Review.

Volume (Year): 5 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 23-54

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Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:5:y:2005:i:1:p:23-54

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Related research

Keywords: Business Tendency Survey; Industrial Production Index; Cross-correlation; Principal Component;

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References

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  1. Víctor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1998. "Seasonal Adjustment and Signal Extraction in Economic Time Series," Banco de España Working Papers 9809, Banco de España.
  2. Giorgio Bodo & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2000. "Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 370, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Víctor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1998. "Seasonal Adjustment and Signal Extraction in Economic Time Series," Banco de España Working Papers 9809, Banco de España.
  4. Ng, Yew-Kwang, 1992. "Business Confidence and Depression Prevention: A Mesoeconomic Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 365-71, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Sana Souaid Jad, 2011. "The use of surveys to measure sentiment and expected behaviour of key sectors in the economy: evidence from the business survey conducted by the Central Bank of Lebanon," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Initiatives to address data gaps revealed by the financial crisis", Basel, 25-26 August 2010, volume 34, pages 248-277 Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Yasemin Barlas Ozer & Defne Mutluer, 2005. "Inflation Expectations in Turkey : Statistical Evidence from the Business Tendency Survey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 5(2), pages 73-97.

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