IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/transp/v25y2002i4p311-331.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Automobile Demand for Economies in Transition: A Dynamic Simultaneous-Equation System Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Sameer A. Abu-Eisheh
  • Fred L. Mannering

Abstract

The dynamic characteristics of automobile demand are critical for national economic and revenue predictions. Automobile demand and ownership level forecasts are also the basis for travel demand models, land-use-transport interaction models, and transport policies and regulations. In this article, a dynamic automobile demand simulation model is developed utilizing a simultaneous-equation system. The system considers the interaction between supply and demand and the resulting equilibrium. Although forecasting automobile demand has been previously investigated, it has not been within such a dynamic simulation framework. Our model includes the current and lagged automobile quantity and price variables; economic, financial and operating cost variables; and income and government policy variables. The capabilities of the model are then demonstrated through performing a number of simulation experiments considering various growth-development scenarios, changes in operating costs, government policies towards automobile imports, and demographic/employment shifts. Relevant tests are applied to examine the econometric specifications and to evaluate the simulation model performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Sameer A. Abu-Eisheh & Fred L. Mannering, 2002. "Forecasting Automobile Demand for Economies in Transition: A Dynamic Simultaneous-Equation System Approach," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 311-331, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:transp:v:25:y:2002:i:4:p:311-331
    DOI: 10.1080/0308106022000019026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/0308106022000019026
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/0308106022000019026?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yoo, Sunbin & Yoshida, Yoshikuni, 2019. "Consumer preferences and financial incentives in the Japanese automobile industry," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 220-229.
    2. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2011. "Forecasting U.S. car sales and car registrations in Japan: Rationality, accuracy and herding," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 253-258.
    3. Cumhur Erdem & Saban Nazlioglu, 2013. "Determinants of new vehicle registrations in EU countries: a panel cointegration analysis," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 287-298, April.
    4. Chen, Cynthia & Niemeier, Debbie, 2005. "A mass point vehicle scrappage model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 401-415, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:transp:v:25:y:2002:i:4:p:311-331. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/GTPT20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.