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A Dynamic Origin-constrained Spatial Interaction Model Applied to Poland's Inter-provincial Migration

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  • Anna Sarra
  • Mariarosaria Del Signore
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    Abstract

    Abstract In contemporary Europe migratory processes are becoming inceasingly important, given the diminishing impact of natural changes on population dynamics. In this paper, we focus on some determinants of internal migration in Poland. The choice of variables is guided by recent considerations about interregional migration in other transitional economies. The quantitative analysis of Polish migration flows has been performed by considering migration interactions over time. A dynamic version of an origin-constrained spatial interaction model is proposed. This approach relies on using the method of offsets, generalizing the Poisson regression framework, and applied to the calibration of spatial interaction models. Mod�le dynamique d'interactions spatiales limit�es par l'origine, appliqu� aux migrations interprovinciales en Pologne R�SUM� Dans l'Europe contemporaine, les processus migratoires acqui�rent une importance toujours majeure, compte tenu de la r�duction de l'impact des changements naturels sur la dynamique de la population. Dans la pr�sente communication, nous nous concentrons sur certains facteurs d�terminants de la migration interne en Pologne. Le choix des variables est d�termin� par de r�centes consid�rations concernant les migrations interr�gionales dans d'autres �conomies transitionnelles. On proc�de � l'analyse quantitative des flux migratoires polonais, en examinant des interactions migratoires progressives. On propose une version dynamique d'un mod�le d'interaction spatiale limit� par l'origine: ce principe est bas� sur l'utilisation de la m�thode d'offsets, g�n�ralisant le cadre de r�gression de Poisson, et appliqu� au calibrage de mod�les d'interaction spatiale. Modelo din�mico de interacci�n espacial restringido por origen aplicado a la emigraci�n interprovincial de Polonia R�SUM� En la Europa contempor�nea, los procesos migratorios son cada vez m�s importantes debido al decreciente impacto de los cambios naturales sobre la din�mica de la poblaci�n. En este trabajo, nos centramos en algunos de los determinantes de la emigraci�n interna en Polonia. La elecci�n de variables se gu�a por consideraciones recientes sobre la emigraci�n interregional en otras econom�as transicionales. El an�lisis cuantitativo de los flujos polacos de emigraci�n se ha realizado considerando las interacciones de emigraci�n a trav�s del tiempo. Se propone una versi�n din�mica de un modelo de interacci�n espacial restringido por origen. Este planteamiento se basa en el empleo del m�todo de compensaciones (method of offsets), generalizando el marco de regresi�n Poisson, y aplic�ndolo a la calibraci�n de modelos de interacci�n espacial.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Spatial Economic Analysis.

    Volume (Year): 5 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 29-41

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:specan:v:5:y:2010:i:1:p:29-41

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    Related research

    Keywords: Dynamic spatial interaction models; internal migration; Poisson models; offsets model; C13; C25; R23;

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