This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

What do we know about the real exchange rate? A classical cost of production story

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
John Sarich
Abstract

This paper argues that exchange rate models rooted in the theory of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and balanced trade are fundamentally mis-specified, as evidenced by the disjuncture between: (1) the empirical evidence, which largely refutes PPP; and (2) the empirical result that 'real’ productivity shocks are associated with observed secular trends in exchange rates. In the former case we have a theory without convincing evidence, and in the latter case we have empirical evidence in want of a consistent theory. If looked at from the perspective of a 'cost of production’ theory of prices, such empirical results might not be so theoretically anomalous. So-called 'real’ variables (especially productivity and unit labor costs), let in through the side door as 'shocks’ to PPP equilibrium, may in fact be part and parcel of the formation of prices of production on an international scale through capitalist competition. The primary conclusion is that the empirical evidence supports a cost of production theory of the terms of trade and the real exchange rate. The empirical evidence in support of the Balassa--Samuelson model of the exchange rate is re-interpreted in this light. In this interpretation, parity holds only in terms of rates of return on investment which, in the classical tradition, are presumed to equalize across industries internationally.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=L1PQ363166JU54HU
File Format: text/html
File Function:
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Review of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 18 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 469-496
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:taf:revpoe:v:18:y:2006:i:4:p:469-496

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=102233

Order Information:
Web: http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/subscription.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Anwar M. Shaikh, 1998. "The Stock Market and the Corporate Sector: A Profit-Based Approach," Macroeconomics 9811007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Froot, Kenneth A. & Kim, Michael & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Law of One Price Over 700 Years," Working Papers 95-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Meese, Richard, 1990. "Currency Fluctuations in the Post-Bretton Woods Era," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 117-34, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. R. Dornbusch, 1979. "Monetary Policy Under Exchange Rate Flexibility," Working papers 228, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  6. Cedric Tille & Nicolas Stoffels & Olga Gorbachev, 2001. "To what extent does productivity drive the dollar?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ronald Balvers & Yangru Wu & Erik Gilliland, 2000. "Mean Reversion across National Stock Markets and Parametric Contrarian Investment Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 745-772, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. David Backus, 1984. "Empirical Models of the Exchange Rate: Separating the Wheat from the Chaff," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 824-46, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Lothian, James R., 1987. "The behavior of real exchange rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 17-42. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "Are exchange rates macroeconomic phenomena?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 19-30. [Downloadable!]
  11. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Purchasing Power Parity," NBER Working Papers 1591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1989. " Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics: A Selective Survey," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 91(2), pages 401-32.
    Other versions:
  15. Craig S. Hakkio, 1986. "Interest rates and exchange rates--what is the relationship?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Nov, pages 33-43. [Downloadable!]
  16. Anthony J. Richards, 1996. "Comovements in National Stock Market Returns: Evidence of Predictability but not Cointegration," IMF Working Papers 96/28, International Monetary Fund.
    Other versions:
  17. Cletus C. Coughlin & Kees Koedijk, 1990. "What do we know about the long-run real exchange rate?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 36-48. [Downloadable!]
  18. Aris Protopapadakis & Hans R. Stoll, . "Spot and Futures Prices and the Law of One Price," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 17-82, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    Other versions:
  19. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad Diba, 1996. "Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 1997. "Real exchange rate behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 945-954, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. A. Protopapadakis, Aris & R. Stoll, Hans, 1986. "The Law of One Price in international commodity markets: A reformulation and some formal tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 335-360, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. R. Dornbusch, 1975. "Exchange Rate Dynamics," Working papers 167, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  23. Rogers, J.H. & Jenkins, M.A., 1993. "Haircuts or Hysteresis? Sources of Movements in Real Exchange Rates," Papers 4-93-6, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  24. Hamid Faruqee, 1994. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate - A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Working Papers 94/90, International Monetary Fund.
  25. John A. Tatom, 1988. "The link between the value of the dollar, U.S. trade and manufacturing output: some recent evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 24-37. [Downloadable!]
  26. Officer, Lawrence H, 1974. "Purchasing Power Parity and Factor Price Equalization," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 868-78.
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You can use convenient plug-ins to search directly IDEAS from your browser.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-14.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.