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Voting Patterns, Party Spending and Relative Location in England and Wales

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Author Info

  • David Cutts
  • Don Webber

Abstract

Cutts D. and Webber D. J. Voting patterns, party spending and relative location in England and Wales, Regional Studies. There is growing evidence that context can influence how people make voting decisions, and some of the contexts are spatially defined. Votes are cast in constituencies, but electors in one constituency may be influenced by 'events' in neighbouring constituencies, such as the intensity of party campaigning. By examining the determinants of voting patterns across constituencies in England and Wales using spatial econometric methods, this article suggests that while socio-economic factors and local campaigning are key determinants of party vote shares in constituencies, there is strong spatial autocorrelation in voting patterns. Not only does local campaigning have a positive effect on party performance in constituency j, but also empirical evidence is found of spillover effects following intensive party activity. The more a party spends on campaigning in constituencies adjacent to constituency j, the more votes it gets in constituency j. Each major political party is influenced by space to different extents with the Liberal Democrats visibly exploiting spatial autocorrelation to increase their vote shares. [image omitted] Cutts D. et Webber D. J. La distribution des votes, les depenses des partis politiques et la localisation relative en Angleterre et au Pays de Galles, Regional Studies. Tout laisse a indiquer que le contexte peut influer sur les intentions de vote, et quelques-uns des contextes se definissent geographiquemment. On vote dans des circonscriptions electorales, mais il se peut que les intentions de vote des voteurs d'une conscription electorale donnee soient influencees par les 'circonstances' qui ont lieu dans des circonscriptions electorales voisines, telles l'importance des campagnes electorales. En examinant les determinants de la distribution des votes a travers les circonscriptions electorales en Angleterre et au Pays de Galles en employant des modeles econometriques geographiques, cet article laisse supposer que l'autocorrelation de la distribution des votes s'avere forte, tandis que les facteurs socio-economiques et les campagnes locales sont des determinants cle de la distribution des votes dans les circonscriptions electorales. Les campagnes sont non seulement etroitement liees a la performance d'un parti dans la circonscription electorale j, mais il s'avere aussi des retombees suite a une campagne electorale intensive. Plus un parti politique depense pour les campagnes dans les circonscriptions electorales voisines de la circonscription electorale j, plus les votes obtenus en circonscription electorale j sont eleves. Chaque parti politique majeur est influence differemment par l'espace, dont les Liberal Democrats qui exploitent ouvertement l'autocorrelation geographique afin d'augmenter leur proportion des votes. Elections legislatives 2005 Distribution des votes Depenses des partis politiques Regression geographique Cutts D. und Webber D. J. Wahlverhalten, Ausgaben der Parteien und relative Standorte in England und Wales, Regional Studies. Es gibt wachsende Anzeichen dafur, dass die Wahlentscheidungen der Burger vom Kontext beeinflusst werden konnen und dass einige dieser Kontexte raumlich definiert sind. Die Stimmen werden innerhalb von Wahlkreisen abgegeben, doch die Wahler in einem Wahlkreis konnen von 'Ereignissen' in angrenzenden Wahlkreisen beeinflusst werden, wie z.�B. der Intensitat des dortigen Wahlkampfs einzelner Parteien. In diesem Beitrag untersuchen wir mit Hilfe raumlich-okonometrischer Methoden die Determinanten des Wahlverhaltens verschiedener Wahlkreise in England und Wales und stellen die These auf, dass soziookonomische Faktoren und der lokale Wahlkampf zwar zentrale Determinanten fur die Stimmenanteile der Parteien in den einzelnen Wahlkreisen darstellen, doch dass hinsichtlich des Wahlverhaltens auch eine ausgepragte raumliche Autokorrelation vorhanden ist. Der lokale Wahlkampf wirkt sich nicht nur positiv auf die Ergebnisse der jeweiligen Partei im Wahlkreis j aus, sondern wir finden auch empirische Beweise fur Ubertragungseffekte nach einem intensiven Wahlkampf. Je mehr eine Partei in einem Nachbarwahlkreis des Wahlkreises j fur ihren Wahlkampf ausgibt, desto mehr Stimmen erhalt sie im Wahlkreis j. Jede grossere politische Partei wird in unterschiedlichem Ausmass vom Raum beeinflusst, wobei die Liberal Democrats die raumliche Autokorrelation sichtbar zur Erhohung ihres Stimmenanteils ausnutzen. Britische Parlamentswahlen von 2005 Wahlverhalten Ausgaben politischer Parteien Raumliche Regression Cutts D. y Webber D. J. Modelos de votacion, gastos de partidos y ubicacion relativa en Inglaterra y Gales, Regional Studies. Hay cada vez mas indicios de que las decisiones electorales de los ciudadanos pueden estar influenciadas por el contexto y que algunos contextos estan definidos espacialmente. Los votos se emiten en distritos electorales pero los votantes de un distrito electoral podrian estar influenciados por 'acontecimientos' que ocurran en los distritos vecinos, como podria ser la intensidad de una campana politica. Al examinar los determinantes de los modelos de votacion en los diferentes distritos electorales en Inglaterra y Gales usando metodos econometricos espaciales, en este articulo sugerimos que si bien los factores socioeconomicos y las campanas locales son determinantes fundamentales de las resultados electorales de los partidos en los distritos, existe una fuerte autocorrelacion espacial en los modelos de votacion. Las campanas locales no solo tienen un efecto positivo en el desempeno del partido en un distrito electoral J sino que tambien observamos indicios empiricos de los efectos de desbordamiento tras una intensa actividad por parte de los partidos politicos. Cuanto mas gasta un partido en las campanas en los distritos electorales adyacentes al distrito J, mas votos obtiene en este distrito. Cada partido politico importante esta influenciado por el espacio de modo distinto, si bien los democratas liberales explotan visiblemente la autocorrelacion espacial para mejorar sus resultados electorales. Eleccion General de 2005 Modelos de votacion Gastos de partidos politicos Regresion espacial

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Regional Studies.

Volume (Year): 44 (2010)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 735-760

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Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:44:y:2010:i:6:p:735-760

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Related research

Keywords: 2005 General Election; Voting patterns; Political party spending; Spatial regression;

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Cited by:
  1. Niklas Potrafke, 2011. "Economic Freedom and Government Ideology Across the German States," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-41, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.

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