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Multilevel Analysis of Internal Migration in a Transitional Country: The Case of Estonia

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Author Info

  • Hill Kulu
  • Francesco Billari

Abstract

Kulu H. and Billari F. C. (2004) Multilevel analysis of internal migration in a transitional country: the case of Estonia, Regional Studies38, 679-696. Recent geographical migration studies have aimed at clarifying the impact of both social environment and people's desires and beliefs on migration behaviour. However, most studies have focused on migration in Western countries, using cross-sectional data and single level methods. In this paper, we study the determinants of internal migration in Estonia, a multicultural society, during the transition period (1989-94). We use longitudinal data and apply multilevel event history methods. We show that both personal and contextual (potentially time-varying) factors are important in determining migration propensity. Moreover, several personal determinants-age, employment status, ethnic origin-interact with environmental conditions in shaping behaviour. While our results of the age differences support a traditional life-course-related migration pattern, our results of the differences in migration behaviour by employment status and ethnic origin imply deepening social polarization and ethnic segregation in post- Soviet Estonia as a result of internal migration. Kulu H. et Billari F. C. (2004) Une analyse a plusieurs niveaux de la migration interne dans un pays en voie de transition: etude de cas de l'Estonie, Regional Studies38, 679-696. Des etudes recentes qui traitent de la migration d'un point de vue geographique ont cherche a expliquer l'impact du milieu social, et des esperances et des attentes individuelles, sur la propensite a la migration. Toujours est-il que la plupart des etudes ont porte sur la migration dans des pays occidentaux, employant des donnees transversales et des methodes a un seul niveau. Cet article cherche a etudier les determinants de la migration interne de l'Estonie, une societe multiculturelle, pendant la periode de transition, a savoir de 1989 a 1994. On se sert des donnees longitudinales et emploie des methodes a plusieurs niveaux relatives a des evenements ponctuels dans l'histoire. On demontre comment des facteurs d'ordre personnel ainsi que des facteurs d'ordre contextuel (susceptibles de varier dans le temps) s'averent importants quant a la propensite a la migration. En outre, plusieurs determinants d'ordre personnels, tels l'age, la categorie socio-professionnelle, les origines ethniques, agissent sur les conditions environnementales afin d'influer sur le comportement. Alors que les resultats relatifs aux tranches d'age viennent a l'appui de la notion d'une migration traditonnelle liee au cycle de vie, les resultats relatifs aux differences dans le comportement des migrants, en fonction de leur categorie socio-professionnelle et de leurs origines ethniques, laissent supposer une polarisation de plus en plus approfondie et une segregation ethnique dans l'Estonie ex-sovietique a cause de la migration interne. Kulu H. und Billari F. C. (2004) Multilaterale Analyse der internen Wanderung in einem Ubergangsland: der Fall Estland, Regional Studies38, 679-696. KUrzlich durchgefUhrte Wanderungsstudien haben sich bemUht, sowohl die Auswirkung des sozialen Milieus als auch WUnsche und Ansichten der betroffenen Personen bezUglich Wanderungsverhalten zu erklaren. Die meisten Untersuchungen konzentrieren sich jedoch auf Wanderung in westlichen Landern, wobei sie Querschnittsdaten und eingleisige Methoden benutzen. In diesem Aufsatz werden bestimmenden Faktoren der Binnenwanderung in Estland, einer multikulturellen Gesellschaft, wahrend der Ubergangszeit (1989-94) untersucht. Dazu werden Langsdatenreihen eingesetzt und Geschichtsschreibung auf mehreren Ebenen angewandt. Es wird gezeigt, dass personliche und im Zusammenhang stehende (moglicherweise verschiedene Zeiten betreffende) Faktoren bei der Bestimmung der Neigung zu Wanderung von Bedeutung sind. Ausserdem wirken bei der Pragung von Verhalten verschiedene personliche Bestimmungsfaktoren wie Alter, berufliche Stellung, ethnische Herkunft, auf die Umweltbedingungen wechselweise ein. Obschon die Ergebnisse der Alterunterschiede ein traditionelles, Lebenslauf bezogenes Wanderungsmuster bestatigen, lassen die hier gewonnenen Ergebnisse der Unterschiede im Wanderungsverhalten nach beruflicher Stellung und ethnischer Herkunft darauf schliessen, dass im Estland der Nachsowjetzeit Binnenwanderung zu gesellschaftlicher Polarisierung und ethnischer Trennung gefUhrt hat. Kulu H. y Billari F. C. (2004) Un analisis multinivel de la migracion interna en un pais en transicion: el caso de Estonia, Regional Studies38, 679-696. Estudios recientes sobre la migracion geografica se han dirigido a aclarar el impacto que el ambiente social y los deseos y creencias de las personas tienen en el comportamiento migratorio. Sin embargo, la mayor parte de los estudios se han centrado en la migracion en los paises occidentales, utilizando datos transversales y metodos de un solo nivel. En este articulo investigamos los determinantes de la migracion interna en Estonia, una sociedad multicultural, durante el periodo de transicion (1989-94). Hacemos uso de datos longitudinales y aplicamos metodos multinivel de acontecimientos historicos. Demostramos que tanto los factores personales como los contextuales (potencialmente variantes en el tiempo) son importantes a la hora de determinar una actitud propensa a la migracion. Ademas, varios determinantes personales - edad, ocupacion laboral, estado civil, posicion laboral, origen etnico - interactuan con las condiciones ambientales a la hora de determinar dicho comportamiento. Mientras que los resultados de nuestro estudio con respecto a las diferencias en edad sostienen un patron de migracion tradicional relacionada con el curso de vida, nuestros resultados en lo que respecta a las diferencias en el comportamiento migratorio por posicion laboral y origen etnico implican una polarizacion social y una segregacion etnica cada vez mayor en la Estonia post-Sovietica como resultado de la migracion interna.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Regional Studies.

Volume (Year): 38 (2004)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 679-696

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Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:38:y:2004:i:6:p:679-696

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Related research

Keywords: Internal Migration; Multilevel Event History Analysis; Transitional Society; Ethnicity; Estonia;

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Cited by:
  1. Lesia Nedoluzhko & Gunnar Andersson, 2006. "Migration and first-time parenthood: evidence from Kyrgyzstan," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-020, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  2. World Bank, 2012. "In Search of Opportunities : How a More Mobile Workforce Can Propel Ukraine’s Prosperity (Vol. 2 of 2) : Technical Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12287, The World Bank.
  3. Belit Saka, 2012. "Internal Migration of Ethnic Minorities: Evidence from Western Germany," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 495, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
  4. Pierella Paci & Erwin R. Tiongson & Mateusz Walewski & Jacek Liwinski & Maria M. Stoilkova, 2007. "Internal Labor Mobility in Central Europe and the Baltic Region," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6598, October.

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