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An experimental study on real-options strategies

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  • Mei Wang
  • Abraham Bernstein
  • Marc Chesney

Abstract

We conduct a laboratory experiment to study whether people intuitively use real-option strategies in a dynamic investment setting. The participants were asked to play as an oil manager and make production decisions in response to a simulated mean-reverting oil price. Using cluster analysis, participants can be classified into four groups, which we label ‘mean-reverting’, ‘Brownian motion real-option’, ‘Brownian motion myopic real-option’, and ‘ambiguous’. We find two behavioral biases in the strategies of our participants: ignoring the mean-reverting process, and myopic behavior. Both lead to too frequent switches when compared with the theoretical benchmark. We also find that the last group behaved as if they have learned to incorporate the true underlying process into their decisions, and improved their decisions during the later stage.

Suggested Citation

  • Mei Wang & Abraham Bernstein & Marc Chesney, 2012. "An experimental study on real-options strategies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 1753-1772, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:12:y:2012:i:11:p:1753-1772
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2012.691984
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    Cited by:

    1. Rieger, Marc O. & Wang, Mei & Phan, Thuy Chung & Gong, Yujing, 2022. "Trend following or reversal: Does culture affect predictions and trading behavior?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    2. M. I. M. Wahab & C. -G. Lee & P. Sarkar, 2023. "A real options approach to value manufacturing flexibilities with regime-switching product demand," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 864-895, September.
    3. Hörnlein, Lena, 2019. "The value of gas-fired power plants in markets with high shares of renewable energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1078-1098.
    4. Driouchi, Tarik & Trigeorgis, Lenos & So, Raymond H.Y., 2020. "Individual antecedents of real options appraisal: The role of national culture and ambiguity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(3), pages 1018-1032.

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