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The Russian Crisis: A Debt Perspective

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  • Niko Gobbin
  • Bruno Merlevede

Abstract

On 17 August 1998 the Russian authorities devalued the ruble, suspended repayments of ruble-denominated government paper and announced a moratorium on the Russian foreign debt. By doing so the government brought the domestic banking sector to the edge of bankruptcy and risked losing the little international faith still remaining in its abilities to restructure the economy. In this article we examine the deeper causes of the crisis. After having analysed its antecedents we gather our new insights into a basic stylised model of the crisis. The outcome of the model is then linked to the actual data and events.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Post-Communist Economies.

Volume (Year): 12 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 141-163

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Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:12:y:2000:i:2:p:141-163

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References

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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
  3. Peter M. Garber & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "The Operation and Collapse of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 4971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1993. "Fixed Exchange Rates as a Means to Price Stability: What Have We Learned," NBER Working Papers 4504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Robert P. Flood & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1991. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Working Papers 91/99, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Robert P. Flood & Nancy P. Marion, 1997. "Policy Implications of "Second-Generation" Crisis Models," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 383-390, September.
  8. Pablo Emilio Guidotti & Guillermo Calvo, 1991. "Speculative Attacks," IMF Working Papers 91/10, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Martin Feldstein, 1999. "Self-Protection for Emerging Market Economies," NBER Working Papers 6907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Betty C. Daniel, 1997. "Fiscal Policy and the Predictability of Exchange Rate Collapse," IMF Working Papers 97/133, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez & Juan J. Vázquez-Zamora, 2008. "Recent episodes of sovereign debt restructurings. A case-study approach," Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers 0804, Banco de Espa�a.
  2. Javier Díaz-Cassou & Aitor Erce-Domínguez & Juan J. Vázquez-Zamora, 2008. "The role of the IMF in recent sovereign debt restructurings: Implications for the policy of lending into arrears," Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers 0805, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Aitor Erce, 2013. "Sovereign debt restructurings and the IMF: implications for future official interventions," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 143, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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