On demographic transition, structural change, and economic growth and stagnation
AbstractThe paper analyzes an economy with an agrarian and an industrial sector. Demand is determined by Engel's Law. Population growth follows a non-linear income dependent path according to the theory of demographic transition. In case of decreasing returns to scale in the agrarian sector the existence of a stable low-income equilibrium with high population growth can be shown. If this equilibrium is globally unstable, the system evolves towards a steady-state of perpetual economic growth and low population growth. The path of demographic transition coincides with a path of structural change from an economy specialized in agriculture to a fully industrialized economy. The introduction of an income dependent savings rate allows the interpretation of the low-income equilibrium as a limit cycle and, therefore, the explanation of high fluctuations in population growth and per capita income in least developed economies.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Mathematical Population Studies.
Volume (Year): 8 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
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Other versions of this item:
- Holger Strulik, 1998. "On Demographic Transition, Structural Change, and Economic Growth and Stagnation," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 19803, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
- J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
- J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O12 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
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