Argentina's Feeble Recovery: Insights from a Real Business Cycle Approach
AbstractArgentina's GDP increased 30% between 2002 and 2005, prompting optimistic assessments that the country had finally left behind its secular stagnation. However, this strong performance followed a sharp decline in economic activity and therefore could be the manifestation of a bounce-back effect with no lasting impact on Argentina's mediocre long-term growth rates. The paper examines this conjecture with the quantitative discipline imposed by a Real Business Cycle methodology and concludes that the 2002-05 expansion was not only a rebound, but also considerably weaker than the model predicts, a finding not consistent with upbeat views about the country's long-term prospects.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Economic Policy Reform.
Volume (Year): 9 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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