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An evaluation of Chinese macroeconomic forecasts

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Author Info

  • Bruno Deschamps
  • Paolo Bianchi

Abstract

This article evaluates the quality of professional macroeconomic forecasts in China for the years 1995--2009. Using a large panel of forecasts on four macroeconomic variables (GDP, inflation, consumption and investment), we reject the hypothesis of unbiasedness, and find that forecasters have been, on average, overly pessimistic. The source of the bias lies primarily in forecasters' slow adjustment to structural shocks to the level of economic growth. We also reject the hypothesis that forecasters use information efficiently, and find that a large number of forecasters overreact to economic news. Finally, we document large differences of forecast accuracy across both forecasters and variables.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14765284.2012.699704
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies.

Volume (Year): 10 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 229-246

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Handle: RePEc:taf:jocebs:v:10:y:2012:i:3:p:229-246

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Cited by:
  1. Mihaela Bratu, 2012. "A Strategy to Improve the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) Predictions Using Bias-Corrected-Accelerated (BCA) Bootstrap Forecast Intervals," International Journal of Synergy and Research, ToKnowPress, vol. 1(2), pages 45-59.
  2. Bratu Mihaela, 2013. "An Evaluation Of Usa Unemployment Rate Forecasts In Terms Of Accuracy And Bias. Empirical Methods To Improve The Forecasts Accuracy," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 170-180, February.
  3. Mihaela BRATU (SIMIONESCU), 2012. "A Strategy To Improve The Gdp Index Forcasts In Romania Using Moving Average Models Of Historical Errors Of The Dobrescu Macromodel," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 35(2(44)), pages 128-138, December.

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