IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jnlasa/v112y2017i519p1090-1106.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Continuous Time Analysis of Fleeting Discrete Price Moves

Author

Listed:
  • Neil Shephard
  • Justin J. Yang

Abstract

This article proposes a novel model of financial prices where (i) prices are discrete; (ii) prices change in continuous time; (iii) a high proportion of price changes are reversed in a fraction of a second. Our model is analytically tractable and directly formulated in terms of the calendar time and price impact curve. The resulting càdlàg price process is a piecewise constant semimartingale with finite activity, finite variation, and no Brownian motion component. We use moment-based estimations to fit four high-frequency futures datasets and demonstrate the descriptive power of our proposed model. This model is able to describe the observed dynamics of price changes over three different orders of magnitude of time intervals. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Suggested Citation

  • Neil Shephard & Justin J. Yang, 2017. "Continuous Time Analysis of Fleeting Discrete Price Moves," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(519), pages 1090-1106, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlasa:v:112:y:2017:i:519:p:1090-1106
    DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2016.1192544
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/01621459.2016.1192544
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/01621459.2016.1192544?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Timo Dimitriadis & Roxana Halbleib & Jeannine Polivka & Jasper Rennspies & Sina Streicher & Axel Friedrich Wolter, 2022. "Efficient Sampling for Realized Variance Estimation in Time-Changed Diffusion Models," Papers 2212.11833, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    2. Leopoldo Catania & Roberto Di Mari & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2019. "Dynamic discrete mixtures for high frequency prices," Discussion Papers 19/05, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    3. Siem Jan Koopman & Rutger Lit & André Lucas, 2017. "Intraday Stochastic Volatility in Discrete Price Changes: The Dynamic Skellam Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(520), pages 1490-1503, October.
    4. Veraart, Almut E.D., 2019. "Modeling, simulation and inference for multivariate time series of counts using trawl processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 110-129.
    5. Siem Jan Koopman & Rutger Lit & André Lucas & Anne Opschoor, 2018. "Dynamic discrete copula models for high‐frequency stock price changes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 966-985, November.
    6. Bennedsen, Mikkel & Lunde, Asger & Shephard, Neil & Veraart, Almut E.D., 2023. "Inference and forecasting for continuous-time integer-valued trawl processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    7. Vladim'ir Hol'y & Petra Tomanov'a, 2021. "Modeling Price Clustering in High-Frequency Prices," Papers 2102.12112, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    8. Vladim'ir Hol'y, 2022. "An Intraday GARCH Model for Discrete Price Changes and Irregularly Spaced Observations," Papers 2211.12376, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hillebrand, Eric & Schnabl, Gunther & Ulu, Yasemin, 2009. "Japanese foreign exchange intervention and the yen-to-dollar exchange rate: A simultaneous equations approach using realized volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 490-505, July.
    2. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-01442618, HAL.
    3. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2020. "Forecasting realized oil-price volatility: The role of financial stress and asymmetric loss," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    4. Woerner Jeannette H. C., 2003. "Variational sums and power variation: a unifying approach to model selection and estimation in semimartingale models," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1/2003), pages 47-68, January.
    5. Raggi, Davide & Bordignon, Silvano, 2012. "Long memory and nonlinearities in realized volatility: A Markov switching approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3730-3742.
    6. Toshiaki Ogawa & Masato Ubukata & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2020. "Stock Return Predictability and Variance Risk Premia around the ZLB," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    7. Athanasia Gavala & Nikolay Gospodinov & Deming Jiang, 2006. "Forecasting volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 381-400.
    8. Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Michail S. Koubouros, 2011. "The Role of Realised Volatility in the Athens Stock Exchange," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 15(1-2), pages 87-124, March - J.
    9. repec:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:1:p:112-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Dufour, Jean-Marie & García, René & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2008. "Measuring causality between volatility and returns with high-frequency data," UC3M Working papers. Economics we084422, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    11. Podolskij, Mark & Vetter, Mathias, 2009. "Bipower-type estimation in a noisy diffusion setting," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(9), pages 2803-2831, September.
    12. Pierre Perron & Eduardo Zorita & Wen Cao & Clifford Hurvich & Philippe Soulier, 2017. "Drift in Transaction-Level Asset Price Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 769-790, September.
    13. Lee, Hwang Hee & Hyun, Jung-Soon, 2019. "The asymmetric effect of equity volatility on credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 125-136.
    14. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2007. "Practical Volatility and Correlation Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 513-544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Mikkel Bennedsen & Asger Lunde & Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2017. "Decoupling the short- and long-term behavior of stochastic volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2017-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    16. Wang, Fangfang, 2014. "Optimal design of Fourier estimator in the presence of microstructure noise," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 708-722.
    17. Do, Hung Xuan & Brooks, Robert & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Wu, Eliza, 2014. "How does trading volume affect financial return distributions?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 190-206.
    18. Sucarrat, Genaro, 2009. "Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Variability," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-33.
    19. Harry-Paul Vander Elst, 2015. "FloGARCH: Realizing Long Memory and Asymmetries in Returns Valitility," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-12, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    20. Serdengeçti, Süleyman & Sensoy, Ahmet & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2021. "Dynamics of return and liquidity (co) jumps in emerging foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    21. Wang, Dong-Hua & Yu, Xiao-Wen & Suo, Yuan-Yuan, 2012. "Statistical properties of the yuan exchange rate index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(12), pages 3503-3512.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jnlasa:v:112:y:2017:i:519:p:1090-1106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/UASA20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.