A Class of Discrete Transformation Survival Models With Application to Default Probability Prediction
AbstractCorporate bankruptcy prediction plays a central role in academic finance research, business practice, and government regulation. Consequently, accurate default probability prediction is extremely important. We propose to apply a discrete transformation family of survival models to corporate default risk predictions. A class of Box-Cox transformations and logarithmic transformations is naturally adopted. The proposed transformation model family is shown to include the popular Shumway model and the grouped relative risk model. We show that a transformation parameter different from those two models is needed for default prediction using a bankruptcy dataset. In addition, we show using out-of-sample validation statistics that our model improves performance. We use the estimated default probability to examine a popular asset pricing question and determine whether default risk has carried a premium. Due to some distinct features of the bankruptcy application, the proposed class of discrete transformation survival models with time-varying covariates is different from the continuous survival models in the survival analysis literature. Their similarities and differences are discussed.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of the American Statistical Association.
Volume (Year): 107 (2012)
Issue (Month): 499 (September)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/UASA20
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.