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Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2

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Author Info
Judith A. Giles, Cara L. Williams
Abstract

This paper continues the investigation of Giles and Williams (2000) on export-led growth (ELG). In the first part, we surveyed the empirical export-led growth literature; it was evident that Granger non-causality tests are commonly applied as a test for ELG. In this paper, we explore the sensitivity of the test for exclusions restrictions often used as the Granger non-causality test for ELG by reconsidering two applications: Oxley's (1993) study for Portugal and Henriques and Sadorsky's (1996) analysis for Canada. We focus on the robustness of the method adopted to deal with non-stationarity, including the choice of deterministic trend degree. We show that different noncausality outcomes are easy to obtain, and consequently we recommend that readers interpret the empirical ELG literature with care. Our analysis also highlights the importance of examining the robustness of Granger non-causality test results to avoid spurious outcomes in applications.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Journal of International Trade & Economic Development.

Volume (Year): 9 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 445-470
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Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:9:y:2000:i:4:p:445-470

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Keywords: Economic Growth Causality Time Series Models Robustness Misspecification Model Dimension Cointegration;

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References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Harb, Nasri, 2008. "Oil Exports, Non Oil GDP and Investment in the GCC Countries," MPRA Paper 15576, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Judith A. Clarke & Mukesh Ralhan, 2005. "Direct and Indirect Causality Between Exports and Economic Output for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka: Horizon Matters," Econometrics Working Papers 0512, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
  3. Aamer S. Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2004. "The validity of the ELG hypothesis in the MENA region: cointegration and error correction model analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(15), pages 1685-1695, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Frances Ruane & Ali U?ur, 2005. "Export Platform FDI and Dualistic Development," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp028, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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  5. P. J. Dawson & L. J. Hubbard, 2004. "Exports and economic growth in Central and East European countries during transition," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(16), pages 1819-1824, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Konya, L., 2004. "Export-Led Growth, Growth-Driven Export, Both or None? Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(1). [Downloadable!]
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