IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jitecd/v27y2018i6p607-637.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A new perspective on the third-country effect: The case of Malaysia–US industry-level trade

Author

Listed:
  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
  • Muhammad Aftab

Abstract

Cushman suggested that impact of exchange rate volatility declines after the inclusion of the third-country effect. Like Cushman, when we use a linear analysis, we confirm his results. However, when we engage in asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility which requires including nonlinear adjustment of volatility measures, the findings show more support to both exchange rate volatility influence and the third-country effect. Therefore, we propose that in examining exchange rate volatility effect on trade, consideration must be given to not just asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility but also asymmetric effects of the third-country effect. We demonstrate these findings using monthly data from 54 Malaysian industries that export to the US and 63 Malaysian industries that import from the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Aftab, 2018. "A new perspective on the third-country effect: The case of Malaysia–US industry-level trade," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 607-637, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:27:y:2018:i:6:p:607-637
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2017.1411967
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09638199.2017.1411967
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09638199.2017.1411967?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard M. Levich & Gregory S. Hayt & Beth A. Ripston, 1999. "1998 Survey of Derivatives and Risk Management Practices by U.S. Institutional Investors," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-074, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    2. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 211-255, August.
    5. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Tankui, Altin, 2008. "The black market exchange rate vs. the official rate in testing PPP: Which rate fosters the adjustment process?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 40-43, April.
    6. Muhammad Aftab & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Rubi Ahmad & Izlin Ismail, 2016. "Exchange-rate variability and industry trade flows between Malaysia and Japan," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 453-478, June.
    7. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1986. "Determinants of international trade flows : The Case of Developing Countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 107-123.
    8. Hall, Stephen & Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George & Ulan, Michael, 2010. "Exchange-rate volatility and export performance: Do emerging market economies resemble industrial countries or other developing countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1514-1521, November.
    9. Hooy, Chee-Wooi & Siong-Hook, Law & Tze-Haw, Chan, 2015. "The impact of the Renminbi real exchange rate on ASEAN disaggregated exports to China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 253-259.
    10. O. Cushman, David, 1986. "Has exchange risk depressed international trade? The impact of third-country exchange risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 361-379, September.
    11. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jia Xu, 2012. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between U.S. and China: is there a third country effect," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(3), pages 555-586, July.
    12. Cushman, David O., 1983. "The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 45-63, August.
    13. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Aftab, Muhammad, 2017. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: New evidence from US-Malaysia trade at the industry level," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 86-103.
    14. Baek, Jungho, 2013. "Does the exchange rate matter to bilateral trade between Korea and Japan? Evidence from commodity trade data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 856-862.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Kaveepot Satawatananon, 2012. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between the US and Thailand," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 515-532, August.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Misbah Nosheen & Javed Iqbal, 2017. "Third-Country Exchange Rate Volatility and Pakistan-U.S. Trade at Commodity Level," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 105-129, March.
    17. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Masatci, Kaan & Pılbeam, Keith, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility and international trade: International evidence from the MINT countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 133-140.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty & Dan Xi, 2016. "Third-country exchange rate volatility and Japanese--US trade: evidence from industry-level data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(16), pages 1452-1462, April.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Aftab, 2017. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes and the J-curve: New Evidence from 61 Malaysia–Thailand Industries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 30-46, November.
    20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Marzieh Bolhassani, 2014. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Trade between U.S. and Canada: Is There Evidence of Third-Country Effect?," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 23-44, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Arize, Augustine C., 2022. "The effect of exchange rate volatility on U.S. bilateral trade with Africa: A symmetric and asymmetric analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    2. Cengiz Tunc & Senol Babuşçu & Adalet Hazar & M. Nihat Solakoglu, 2020. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: External Exchange Rate Volatility Matters," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Felipe Chávez-Bustamante & Elliott Mardones-Arias & Julio Rojas-Mora & Jaime Tijmes-Ihl, 2023. "A Forgotten Effects Approach to the Analysis of Complex Economic Systems: Identifying Indirect Effects on Trade Networks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-20, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hurley, Dene T. & Papanikolaou, Nikolaos, 2021. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis of U.S.-China commodity trade dynamics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 454-467.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ridha Nouira, 2020. "On the impact of exchange rate volatility on Tunisia’s trade with 16 partners: an asymmetry analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 357-378, August.
    3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Kanitpong, Tatchawan, 2019. "Thailand-China commodity trade and exchange rate uncertainty: Asymmetric evidence from 45 industries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Augustine C. Arize, 2020. "On the Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade Flows: Evidence from Africa," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(4), pages 913-939, March.
    5. Chandan Sharma & Debdatta Pal, 2019. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Dampen Imports? Commodity-Level Evidence From India," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 696-718, October.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Parveen Akhtar & Sana Ullah & Muhammad Tariq Majeed, 2020. "Exchange Rate Risk and Uncertainty and Trade Flows: Asymmetric Evidence from Asia," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-16, June.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2021. "Are the effects of exchange‐rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and Mexico symmetric or asymmetric?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2998-3027, April.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of India with each of its fourteen partners," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 66-85, January.
    9. Yusaku Nishimura & Bianxia Sun, 2018. "China’s Exchange-Rate Regime Reform and Trade Between China and the Eurozone," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 450-467, January.
    10. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Aftab, Muhammad, 2017. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: New evidence from US-Malaysia trade at the industry level," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 86-103.
    11. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Marina Kovyryalova, 2008. "Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Trade Flows: Evidence from Commodity Trade between the United States and the United Kingdom," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(8), pages 1097-1128, August.
    12. Sung-Ko Li & Chun-Kei Tsang, 2020. "The Impacts Of Biased Resource Allocation On The Effectiveness Of Official Development Assistance," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(01), pages 239-256, March.
    13. Abdorreza Soleymani & Soo Y. Chua & Abdul Fatah Che Hamat, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility and ASEAN-4’s trade flows: is there a third country effect?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 91-117, January.
    14. Chandan Sharma, 2019. "Exchange rate volatility and exports from India: a commodity-level panel data analysis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(1), pages 23-44, June.
    15. Sharma, Chandan & Pal, Debdatta, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility and India's cross-border trade: A pooled mean group and nonlinear cointegration approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 230-246.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Misbah Nosheen & Javed Iqbal, 2017. "Third-Country Exchange Rate Volatility and Pakistan-U.S. Trade at Commodity Level," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 105-129, March.
    17. Chi, Junwook, 2020. "The impact of third-country exchange rate risk on international air travel flows: The case of Korean outbound tourism demand," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 66-78.
    18. Xu, Jia & Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Karamelikli, Huseyin, 2022. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate uncertainty on China’s bilateral trade with its major partners," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 653-669.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Masoomeh Hajilee, 2013. "Impact of exchange-rate variability on commodity trade between U.S. and Germany," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 287-324, May.
    20. Mei-Se Chien & Nur Setyowati & Chih-Yang Cheng, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects Of Exchange Rate Volatility On Bilateral Trade Between Taiwan And Indonesia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(04), pages 857-888, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:27:y:2018:i:6:p:607-637. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RJTE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.