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The threshold effects of exchange rate volatility on exports: Evidence from US bilateral exports

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  • Kuang-Chung Hsu
  • Hui-Chu Chiang

Abstract

Previous research that employed bilateral trading data in analyzing the impact of exchange rate volatility on real trading volume has yielded mixed results. Thus, it is possible that the effects are non-linear. This paper uses a threshold regression model proposed by Hansen (1999) to examine this impact on bilateral exports between the US and its top 13 trading partners. The estimated results illustrate that the threshold effects exist if the threshold variable is real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of partner countries relative to US GDP per capita. Exchange rate volatility reduces the exports from the US to relative high-income partner countries but increases exports from the US to relative low-income partner countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuang-Chung Hsu & Hui-Chu Chiang, 2011. "The threshold effects of exchange rate volatility on exports: Evidence from US bilateral exports," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 113-128.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:20:y:2011:i:1:p:113-128
    DOI: 10.1080/09638190902898105
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Leon Li & Mark J. Holmes & Bong Soo Lee, 2016. "The asymmetric relationship between executive earnings management and compensation: a panel threshold regression approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(57), pages 5525-5545, December.
    2. Duc Hong Vo & Anh The Vo & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2019. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Disaggregated Manufacturing Exports: Evidence from an Emerging Country," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, January.
    3. Chung‐Hua Shen & Hsing‐Hua Hsu, 2022. "The determinants of Asian banking crises—Application of the panel threshold logit model," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 248-277, March.
    4. Halit YANIKKAYA & Huseyin KAYA & Osman Murat KOCTURK, 2013. "The effect of real exchange rates and their volatilities on the selected agricultural commodity exports: A case study on Turkey, 1971-2010," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 59(5), pages 235-246.
    5. Abdorreza Soleymani & Soo Y. Chua, 2014. "Effect of exchange rate volatility on industry trade flows between Malaysia and China," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 626-655, August.
    6. Cueyt SEVIM & Taylan Taner DOGAN, 2016. "Turkiye Ekonomisinde Ihracat ve Doviz Kuru Oynakligi Iliskisi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 16(2), pages 303-318.
    7. Bente Castro Campos, 2020. "Are there asymmetric relations between real interest rates and agricultural commodity prices? Testing for threshold effects of US real interest rates and adjusted wheat, corn, and soybean prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 371-394, July.
    8. Gilhaimé MOUANDA-MOUANDA, 2019. "Impact of Exchange rate volatility on Global Value Chains Participation Evidence from panel African countries," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 3(3), pages 29-40.
    9. Kuo, Chii-Shyan & Li, Ming-Yuan Leon & Yu, Shang-En, 2013. "Non-uniform effects of CEO equity-based compensation on firm performance – An application of a panel threshold regression model," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 203-214.
    10. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "How Robust is the Connection between Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Tunisia’s Exports?," MPRA Paper 57505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Joseph Dery Nyeadi & Oswald Atiga & Charles Amoyea Atogenzoya, 2014. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Movement on Export: Empirical Evidence from Ghana," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(3), pages 41-48, July.

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