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On exports and economic growth: the case of Italy

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Author Info
Daniela Federici
Daniela Marconi

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Abstract

The export-led growth hypothesis for the Italian economy (1960-98) is tested through a VAR model with four macroeconomic variables: an index of the GDP of the rest of the world; the Italian real exchange rate; Italian real exports; and the Italian real GDP. Our results provide clear empirical support for the hypothesis. They also suggest that the Kaldorian approach is very useful in analysing short-run as well as long-run growth and fluctuations of an open economy such as Italy.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Journal of International Trade & Economic Development.

Volume (Year): 11 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 323-340
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Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:11:y:2002:i:3:p:323-340

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Related research
Keywords: Exports; Economic Growth; Cointegrated; Var Model; Innovation Accounting;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    Other versions:
  3. Marin, Dalia, 1992. "Is the Export-Led.Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 678-88, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Søren Johansen, 1994. "The role of the constant and linear terms in cointegration analysis of nonstationary variables," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 205-229. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Burney, Nadeem A, 1996. "Exports and Economic Growth: Evidence from Cross-Country Analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 369-73, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Shan, Jordan & Sun, Fiona, 1998. "On the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: The Econometric Evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1055-65, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Mosconi, Rocco & Giannini, Carlo, 1992. "Non-causality in Cointegrated Systems: Representation Estimation and Testing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 399-417, August.
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Boltho, Andrea, 1996. "Was Japanese Growth Export-Led?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 415-32, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. McCombie, J S L & Thirlwall, A P, 1997. "The Dynamic Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier and the Demand-Oriented Approach to Economic Growth: An Evaluation," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 5-26, January.
  14. Ahmad, Jaleel & Harnhirun, Somchai, 1995. "Unit roots and cointegration in estimating causality between exports and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the ASEAN countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 329-334, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Yamada, Hiroshi, 1998. "A note on the causality between export and productivity:: an empirical re-examination," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 111-114, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Islam, Muhammed N, 1998. "Export Expansion and Economic Growth: Testing for Cointegration and Causality," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 415-25, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 1988. "Hypothesis Testing for Cointegration Vectors: with Application to the Demand for Money in Denmark and Finland," Discussion Papers 88-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  18. Atesoglu, H Sonmez, 1994. "An Application of a Kaldorian Export-Led Model of Growth to the United States," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 479-83, May.
  19. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Isabel Cortes-Jimenez & Manuela Pulina, 2006. "Tourism and Growth: Evidence for Spain and Italy," ERSA conference papers ersa06p128, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
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