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Capital controls, capital flows and external crises: evidence from India

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Author Info
Timothy Callen
Paul Cashin

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Abstract

Despite the widespread use of capital controls, India has experienced several balance of payments crises. This paper examines the solvency and sustainability of India's external imbalances and analyses the optimality of its capital flows. We use two approaches: an intertemporal model of the current account that allows for capital controls, and a composite model of macroeconomic indicators that yields probabilities of future balance of payments crises. The results indicate that India's intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied and that the path of its current account imbalances is sustainable, with some support for the optimality (given capital controls) of its external borrowing.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Journal of International Trade & Economic Development.

Volume (Year): 11 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 77-98
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Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:11:y:2002:i:1:p:77-98

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Related research
Keywords: Capital Controls; External Sustainability; Balance Of Payments Crises; India;

References listed on IDEAS
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  3. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Ghosh, Atish R, 1995. "International Capital Mobility amongst the Major Industrialised Countries: Too Little or Too Much?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 107-28, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Mercereau, BenĂ´it & Miniane, Jacques Alain, 2008. "Should We Trust the Empirical Evidence from Present Value Models of the Current Account?," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-10, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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