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Data mining and the selection of instruments

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Author Info
Alastair R. Hall, Fernanda P. M. Peixe

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Abstract

Abstract Instrumental variables estimation is widely applied in econometrics. To implement the method, it is necessary to specify a vector of instruments. In this paper, it is argued that there are compelling reasons to use the data for instrument selection, but that it is desirable to ensure the resulting estimator still behaves in the way predicted by standard textbook theory. These arguments lead one to propose three criteria for data based instrument selection. The remainder of the paper assesses the extent to which these criteria are met by two algorithms for data based instrument selection. The first algorithm is the method of structurally ordered instrumental variables proposed in the context of economy-wide linear simultaneous equation models. The second algorithm is proposed in the context of the method of generalized instrumental variables, which is commonly used to estimate the parameters of Euler equation models.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Economic Methodology.

Volume (Year): 7 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 265-277
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Handle: RePEc:taf:jecmet:v:7:y:2000:i:2:p:265-277

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Related research
Keywords: Instrumental Variables Estimation Criteria For Instrument Selection Linear Simultaneous Equation Models Euler Equation Models;

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  1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Thomas Mayer, . "Data Mining: A Reconsideration," Department of Economics 97-15, California Davis - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Alastair Hall & Fernanda P. M. Peixe, 2000. "A Consistent Method for the Selection of Relevant Instruments," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0790, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  5. Mitchell, Bridger M & Fisher, Franklin M, 1970. "The Choice of Instrumental Variables in the Estimation of Economy-Wide Econometric Models: Some Further Thoughts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 11(2), pages 226-34, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kevin D. Hoover, Stephen J. Perez, 2000. "Three attitudes towards data mining," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 195-210, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Phillips, P C B, 1982. "On the Consistency of Nonlinear FIML," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1307-24, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Donald W. K. Andrews, 1999. "Consistent Moment Selection Procedures for Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 543-564, May.
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  9. Hall, Alastair R & Rudebusch, Glenn D & Wilcox, David W, 1996. "Judging Instrument Relevance in Instrumental Variables Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(2), pages 283-98, May.
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  10. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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