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Recent Developments in Monetary Policy Analysis: The Roles of Theory and Evidence

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McCallum, Bennett T

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Abstract

Both academic thinking about monetary economics and the practice of monetary policy have changed dramatically since 1971-3, when the rational expectations revolution was beginning and the Bretton Woods system was crumbling. The present paper considers whether the various changes that have taken place were influenced primarily by economic theory or by empirical evidence--or by a combination of the two. Monetary economics, like macroeconomics more generally, passed through the rational expectations period into one dominated by real business cycle (RBC) analysis, which denies monetary policy any significant role in the generation or the dampening of cyclical fluctuations in crucial real variables. Recently, however, the analysis of monetary policy by both academic and central bank economists has been increasingly conducted in small quantitative structural models that combine the optimizing aspect of RBC analysis with various assumptions implying real effects of monetary policy actions due to slow adjustment of nominal prices. These models therefore attempt to combine rather strict theoretical discipline with features that permit an enhanced degree of empirical veracity. It is apparent, accordingly, that both theoretical and empirical analysis have been essential in bringing about alterations in monetary policy analysis between 1971-3 and 1998. Copyright 1999 by Taylor and Francis Group

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Economic Methodology.

Volume (Year): 6 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 171-98
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Handle: RePEc:taf:jecmet:v:6:y:1999:i:2:p:171-98

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References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gilberto A. Libanio, 2004. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: theory, implications, and evidence," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td228, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Marvin Goodfriend & Bennett T. McCallum, 2007. "Banking and interest rates in monetary policy analysis: a quantitative exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ilek, David & Ilek, Alex, 2007. "The Information Content of Inflationary Expectations Derived from Bond Prices in Israel," MPRA Paper 4704, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Krylova, Elizaveta, 2002. "The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy. Case of Austria," Economics Series 111, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
  5. Olivier Loisel, 2004. "Monetary policy rules to preclude booms and busts," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 56, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  6. Marvin Goodfriend, 2007. "How the World Achieved Consensus on Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Páez-Farrell, Juan, 2007. "Monetary Policy Rules in Theory and in Practice: Evidence from the UK and the US," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Claus Brand & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Franz Seitz, 2003. "Narrow Money and the Business Cycle: Theoretical aspects and euro area evdence," Macroeconomics 0303012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Kirsanova, Tatiana & Vines, David & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2006. "Inflation Bias with Dynamic Phillips Curves," CEPR Discussion Papers 5534, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jan Gottschalk & Stéphanie Stolz, 2001. "The Link of the Monetary Indicator to Future Inflation in the Euro Area — A Simulation Experiment," Kiel Working Papers 1057, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  11. Elaine Cristina de Piza & Joilson Dias, 2006. "Novo Consenso Macroeconômico E Política Monetária No Brasil: Uma Avaliação Empírica," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 164, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  12. Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2003. "Does Money Include Information for Output in the Euro Area?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(II), pages 231-252, June. [Downloadable!]
  13. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Acocella Nicola & Tirelli Patrizio, 2008. "Trend inflation as a workers disciplining device in a general equilibrium model," wp.comunite 0043, Department of Communication, University of Teramo. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Edward Nelson, 2004. "The Great Inflation of the seventies: what really happened?," Working Papers 2004-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  15. Celsa Machado, 2001. "Measuring Business Cycles: The Real Business Cycle Approach and Related Controversies," FEP Working Papers 107, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Elke Muchlinski, 2005. "The Lucas Critique and Keynes Response.Considering the History of Macroeconomics," Macroeconomics 0503019, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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