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Tripling Africa's Primary Exports: What, How, Where?

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  • Jorg Mayer
  • Pilar Fajarnes

Abstract

Income growth in Africa that is high enough to achieve the internationally agreed development goals implies a rise in the region's per capita income by the early 2020s to about Latin America's current level. The paper shows that such income growth would be associated roughly with a nine-fold increase in Africa's manufactured exports, but also with a tripling of its primary exports, which in absolute terms would account for two-thirds of the increase in the region's total exports. Focusing on the demand potential for such an increase in Africa's primary exports, the paper argues that rising global demand from sustained rapid growth in natural-resource-poor Asian countries, particularly China, provides sizeable new opportunities for Africa's primary exports. In Africa, extractive industries are poised best to benefit directly from China's rising imports, while exporters of agricultural products are more likely to benefit indirectly from rising world market prices associated with Asia's growing primary imports.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Development Studies.

Volume (Year): 44 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 80-102

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Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:44:y:2008:i:1:p:80-102

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  1. Ruttan, Vernon W., 2002. "Productivity Growth In World Agriculture: Sources And Constraints," Staff Papers 14176, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
  2. Delgado, Christopher L. & Hopkins, Jane & Kelly , Valerie & Hazell, P. B. R. & McKenna, Anna A. & Gruhn, Peter & Hojjati, Behjat & Sil, Jayashree & Courbois, Claude, 1998. "Agricultural growth linkages in Sub-Saharan Africa:," Research reports 107, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Nicolas R. Blancher & Thomas Rumbaugh, 2004. "China: International Trade and WTO Accession," IMF Working Papers 04/36, International Monetary Fund.
  4. M�ns S–derbom & Francis Teal, 2003. "Are Manufacturing Exports the Key to Economic Success in Africa?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
  5. Douglas Gollin & Stephen Parente & Richard Rogerson, 2002. "The Role of Agriculture in Development," Center for Development Economics 2002-09, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  6. Jonathan Kydd & Andrew Dorward & Jamie Morrison & Georg Cadisch, 2004. "Agricultural development and pro-poor economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: potential and policy," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 37-57.
  7. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications," NBER Working Papers 7911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Morisset, Jacques, 1998. "Unfair Trade? The Increasing Gap between World and Domestic Prices in Commodity Markets during the Past 25 Years," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 503-26, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jörg Mayer, 2009. "Policy Space: What, for What, and Where?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 27(4), pages 373-395, 07.
  2. Sebastian Dullien, 2009. "Central Banking, Financial Institutions And Credit Creation In Developing Countries," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 193, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  3. Adrian Wood & Jörg Mayer, 2011. "Has China de-industrialised other developing countries?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 325-350, June.
  4. Alessandro Nicita & Valentina Rollo, 2013. "Tariff Preferences As A Determinant For Exports From Sub-Saharan Africa," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 60, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  5. Martina Metzger, 2008. "Regional Cooperation And Integration In Sub-Saharan Africa," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 189, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  6. Herrmann, Michael, 2006. "Agricultural Support Measures of Advanced Countries and Food Insecurity in Developing Countries," Working Paper Series RP2006/141, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  7. Enrique Cosio-Pascal, 2008. "The Emerging Of A Multilateral Forum For Debt Restructuring: The Paris Club," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 192, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

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