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Can gold effectively hedge risks of exchange rate?

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  • Kuan-Min Wang

Abstract

This study tests whether gold can effectively hedge exchange rate risks. We take into account the asymmetric characteristic of exchange rate fluctuations and use the dynamic panel threshold model in order to select gold prices in major gold-related currencies in the world: the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, the euro, the Indian rupee, the Japanese yen, the South African rand, and the British pound. Using monthly data from January 1999 to January 2010, with lagged one-period exchange rate returns (US dollar depreciation rate) as the threshold variable, the estimation results suggest that there are two thresholds at -7.5% and -3.7%. These can be divided into regime 1 (exchange rate returns ≤ -7.5%), regime 2 (-7.5% > exchange rate returns ≤ -3.7%), and regime 3 (exchange rate returns > -3.7%). Regarding the effectiveness of gold hedging, regime 2 is higher than is regime 3. The risk hedging effect of regime 1 is not significant because it might be caused by the excessive devaluation of the US dollar in the short-term and the overshooting of the exchange rate adjustment, making gold unable to hedge the devaluation risks of the US dollar.

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  • Kuan-Min Wang, 2013. "Can gold effectively hedge risks of exchange rate?," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 833-851, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jbemgt:v:14:y:2013:i:5:p:833-851
    DOI: 10.3846/16111699.2012.670133
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Min Bai & Ly Ho, 2023. "How do gold and oil react to the COVID-19 pandemic: A review," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(7), pages 2876-2902, November.
    2. Wang, Kuan-Min & Lee, Yuan-Ming, 2022. "Is gold a safe haven for exchange rate risks? An empirical study of major currency countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Rakesh Shahani & Aastha Bansal, 2021. "Is gold an effective hedge and/or safe haven instrument against stocks, rupee–dollar rate and crude: an empirical investigation from India," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 48(2), pages 129-151, June.
    4. Muhammad Aftab & Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah & Izlin Ismail, 2019. "Does Gold Act as a Hedge or a Safe Haven against Equity and Currency in Asia?," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 105-118, February.
    5. Pattnaik, Debidutta & Hassan, M. Kabir & DSouza, Arun & Ashraf, Ali, 2023. "Investment in gold: A bibliometric review and agenda for future research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Lawal, Adedoyin, 2021. "Hedging oil price risk with gold during COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Beatriz de la Flor & Javier Ojea-Ferreiro & Eva Ferreira, 2022. "The Hedging Cost of Forgetting the Exchange Rate," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2022-01, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    8. Kuan-Min Wang & Thanh-Binh Nguyen Thi & Yuan-Ming Lee, 2021. "Is gold a safe haven for the dynamic risk of foreign exchange?," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-17, December.

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