Optimal lag-length choice in stable and unstable VAR models under situations of homoscedasticity and ARCH
AbstractThe performance of different information criteria - namely Akaike, corrected Akaike (AICC), Schwarz-Bayesian (SBC), and Hannan-Quinn - is investigated so as to choose the optimal lag length in stable and unstable vector autoregressive (VAR) models both when autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) is present and when it is not. The investigation covers both large and small sample sizes. The Monte Carlo simulation results show that SBC has relatively better performance in lag-choice accuracy in many situations. It is also generally the least sensitive to ARCH regardless of stability or instability of the VAR model, especially in large sample sizes. These appealing properties of SBC make it the optimal criterion for choosing lag length in many situations, especially in the case of financial data, which are usually characterized by occasional periods of high volatility. SBC also has the best forecasting abilities in the majority of situations in which we vary sample size, stability, variance structure (ARCH or not), and forecast horizon (one period or five). frequently, AICC also has good lag-choosing and forecasting properties. However, when ARCH is present, the five-period forecast performance of all criteria in all situations worsens.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Applied Statistics.
Volume (Year): 35 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CJAS20
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Stephan B. Bruns & Christian Gross & David I. Stern, 2013.
"Is There Really Granger Causality Between Energy Use and Output?,"
Crawford School Research Papers
1307, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Bruns, Stephan B. & Gross, Christian & Stern, David I., 2013. "Is There Really Granger Causality Between Energy Use and Output?," FCN Working Papers 11/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
- Theofanis Papageorgiou & Panayotis G. Michaelides & John G. Milios, 2011. "Technology and economic fluctuations in the US food sector (1958-2006): An empirical approach from a political economy perspective," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 140-164, January.
- Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Vouldis, Angelos T., 2013. "Business cycles and economic crisis in Greece (1960–2011): A long run equilibrium analysis in the Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 804-816.
- Vektör otoregresyon in Wikipedia (Turkish)
- Векторна авторегресія in Wikipedia (Ukranian)
- مدل بردارهای خودبرگشتی in Wikipedia (Persian)
- Vector autoregression in Wikipedia (English)
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.