IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/japsta/v30y2003i10p1115-1133.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluations of some Exponentially Weighted Moving Average methods

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Sonesson

Abstract

The need for statistical surveillance has been noted in many different areas, and examples of applications include the detection of an increased incidence of a disease, the detection of an increased radiation level and the detection of a turning point in a leading index for a business cycle. In all cases, preventive actions are possible if the alarm is made early. Several versions of the EWMA (Exponentially Weighted Moving Average) method for monitoring a process with the aim of detecting a shift in the mean are studied both for the one-sided and the two-sided case. The effects of using barriers for the one-sided alarm statistic are also studied. One important issue is the effect of different types of alarm limits. Different measures of evaluation, suitable in different types of applications, are considered such as the expected delay, the ARL¹, the probability of successful detection and the predictive value of an alarm, to give a broad picture of the features of the methods. Results from a large-scale simulation study are presented both for a fixed ARL0 and a fixed probability of a false alarm. It appears that important differences from an inferential point of view exist between the one- and two-sided versions of the methods. It is demonstrated that the method, usually considered as a convenient approximation, is to be preferred over the exact version in the overwhelming majority of applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Sonesson, 2003. "Evaluations of some Exponentially Weighted Moving Average methods," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1115-1133.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:30:y:2003:i:10:p:1115-1133
    DOI: 10.1080/0266476032000107141
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0266476032000107141
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/0266476032000107141?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. G. E. P. Box & G. M. Jenkins & J. F. MacGregor, 1974. "Some Recent Advances in Forecasting and Control," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 23(2), pages 158-179, June.
    2. Eric Hillson & Jaxk Reeves & Charlotte Mcmillan, 1998. "A statistical signalling model for use in surveillance of adverse drug reaction data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 23-40.
    3. S. Knoth & W. Schmid, 2002. "Monitoring the mean and the variance of a stationary process," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 56(1), pages 77-100, February.
    4. Christian Sonesson & David Bock, 2003. "A review and discussion of prospective statistical surveillance in public health," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 166(1), pages 5-21, February.
    5. E. Andersson, 2002. "Monitoring cyclical processes. A non-parametric approach," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 973-990.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marianne Frisen & Eva Andersson & Linus Schioler, 2010. "Evaluation of multivariate surveillance," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 2089-2100.
    2. Frisén, Marianne, 2011. "Methods and evaluations for surveillance in industry, business, finance, and public health," Research Reports 2011:3, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    3. Frisén, Marianne, 2008. "Introduction to financial surveillance," Research Reports 2008:1, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    4. Mahmoud Mahmoud & William Woodall & Robert Davis, 2008. "Performance comparison of some likelihood ratio-based statistical surveillance methods," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 783-798.
    5. E. Andersson & D. Bock & M. Frisen, 2006. "Some statistical aspects of methods for detection of turning points in business cycles," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 257-278.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frisén, Marianne, 2011. "Methods and evaluations for surveillance in industry, business, finance, and public health," Research Reports 2011:3, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    2. Bock, David & Andersson, Eva & Frisén, Marianne, 2007. "Similarities and differences between statistical surveillance and certain decision rules in finance," Research Reports 2007:8, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    3. Bock, David, 2007. "Consequences of using the probability of a false alarm as the false alarm measure," Research Reports 2007:3, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    4. Frisén, Marianne, 2008. "Introduction to financial surveillance," Research Reports 2008:1, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    5. Pettersson, Kjell, 2008. "On curve estimation under order restrictions," Research Reports 2007:15, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    6. Marianne Frisen & Eva Andersson & Linus Schioler, 2010. "Evaluation of multivariate surveillance," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(12), pages 2089-2100.
    7. Marianne Frisén, 2014. "Spatial outbreak detection based on inference principles for multivariate surveillance," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(8), pages 759-769, August.
    8. Marianne Frisén, 2003. "Statistical Surveillance. Optimality and Methods," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 71(2), pages 403-434, August.
    9. Bock, David & Andersson, Eva & Frisén, Marianne, 2007. "Statistical Surveillance of Epidemics: Peak Detection of Influenza in Sweden," Research Reports 2007:6, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    10. Frisén, Marianne & Andersson, Eva, 2008. "Semiparametric surveillance of outbreaks," Research Reports 2007:11, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    11. Frisén, Marianne & Andersson, Eva & Pettersson, Kjell, 2008. "Semiparametric estimation of outbreak regression," Research Reports 2007:13, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    12. David Bock, 2008. "Aspects on the control of false alarms in statistical surveillance and the impact on the return of financial decision systems," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 213-227.
    13. Doyo G Enki & Paul H Garthwaite & C Paddy Farrington & Angela Noufaily & Nick J Andrews & Andre Charlett, 2016. "Comparison of Statistical Algorithms for the Detection of Infectious Disease Outbreaks in Large Multiple Surveillance Systems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-25, August.
    14. Jeon, Yunho & Seong, Sihyeon, 2022. "Robust recurrent network model for intermittent time-series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1415-1425.
    15. Linus Schiöler & Marianne Fris�n, 2012. "Multivariate outbreak detection," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 223-242, April.
    16. A Bottle & P Aylin, 2011. "Predicting the false alarm rate in multi-institution mortality monitoring," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(9), pages 1711-1718, September.
    17. Bock, David & Pettersson, Kjell, 2007. "Explorative analysis of spatial aspects on the Swedish influenza data," Research Reports 2007:10, University of Gothenburg, Statistical Research Unit, School of Business, Economics and Law.
    18. Fieger, Peter & Rice, John, 2016. "Modelling Chinese Inbound Tourism Arrivals into Christchurch," MPRA Paper 75468, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Xia Pan & Jeffrey Jarrett, 2012. "Why and how to use vector autoregressive models for quality control: the guideline and procedures," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 935-948, April.
    20. Xiaobei Shen & Changliang Zou & Wei Jiang & Fugee Tsung, 2013. "Monitoring poisson count data with probability control limits when sample sizes are time varying," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 60(8), pages 625-636, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:30:y:2003:i:10:p:1115-1133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CJAS20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.