Referring to the long-waves theory, the article shows that western economies now seem to be in the recovery phase of the long stagnation which started in 1974 and that, probably, a new long wave will begin in this decade. The main factor justifying this hypothesis is the technological revolution in computer and information technologies initiated in the 1970s, which reproduces the long-waves mechanism. Two other elements corroborate the above assessment on the long-term prospects: (1) the recovery in profitability at the beginning of the 1980s, an evolution that usually characterizes the recovery phase of the long stagnation; (2) the unusual length of the prosperity phase of the business cycle in the 1980s. Of course, this aspect plays a subsidiary role with respect to the two others mentioned above. However, taken in conjunction with them, it reinforces the opinion that, underlying recent favorable performances, there is a change in the long-term trend. Copyright 1992 by Taylor and Francis Group
Download Info
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page
whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be
available.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
Related research
Keywords:
Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)