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Bubbles in UK house prices: evidence from ESTR models

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  • David McMillan
  • Alan Speight
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    Abstract

    Recent movements in stock and house prices have led to an examination of the presence of bubbles. Whilst, there is extensive research on stock price data, there is relatively less for house prices. This paper uses a present-value model for house prices to test for the presence of bubbles. The results support the presence of a non-fundamental component within UK national and regional house prices. In particular, for the majority of series considered, evidence is presented of linear non-stationarity within the fundamental present-value relationship, and of non-linear stationarity, implying the presence of a non-fundamental, or bubble, component. Furthermore, evidence is presented that prices adjust quicker when they are below fundamental equilibrium, than when they are above fundamental equilibrium, i.e. there is downward price stickiness. These results support the hypothesis that house price dynamics can be characterised by price-to-price momentum. Finally, forecast evidence suggests that real prices are likely to adjust downwards and converge with fundamental value.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02692171.2010.483785
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Review of Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): 24 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 437-452

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:24:y:2010:i:4:p:437-452

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    Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CIRA20

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    Related research

    Keywords: house prices; present value model; ESTR model; momentum;

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    Cited by:
    1. Alberto Montagnoli & Jun Nagaysu, 2013. "An investigation of housing affordability in the UK regions," Working Papers 1316, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.

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