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Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: an examination of Thirlwall's hypothesis

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Jonathan Perraton

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Abstract

Thirlwall's hypothesis of balance of payments constrained growth has been widely tested for developed countries, but much less for developing countries. Further, previous tests have used dated estimates derived using non-robust econometric techniques. After discussing the conditions under which Thirlwall's hypothesis would be valid and the econometric issues involved, this study reports error correction estimates of import and export demand functions for a large sample of developing countries. Deriving the long run income elasticities of demand from these functions, the study reports tests for different specifications of Thirlwall's hypothesis on this sample and finds some support for it.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal International Review of Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 17 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 001-022
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Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:17:y:2003:i:1:p:001-022

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  1. Secil Pacaci Elitok & Al Campbell, 2008. "The Balance of Payments as a Constraint on Turkey’s Growth: 1960-2004," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2008_13, University of Utah, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Arslan Razmi, 2009. "Exploring the Robustness of the Balance of Payments-Constrained Growth Idea in a Multiple Good Framework," Working Papers 2009-10, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Santos-Paulino, Amelia U., 2007. "Trade Sustainability and Aid under Liberalization in Fragile Least Developed Countries," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  4. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2006. "A Structural Economic Dynamics Approach To Balance-Of-Payments-Constrained Growth," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 119, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Fugarolas Álvarez-Ude, Guadalupe & Mañalich Gálvez, Isis & Matesanz Gómez, David, 2008. "Empirical Evidence Of The Balance Of Payments Constrained Growth In Cuba. The Effects Of Comercial Regimes Since 1960," MPRA Paper 6993, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Matesanz Gómez, David & Fugarolas Álvarez-Ude, Guadalupe, 2006. "Exchange rate policy and trade balance. A cointegration analysis of the argentine experience since 1962," MPRA Paper 151, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Mario García Molina & Jeanne Kelly Ruíz Tavera, 2008. "Ley De Thirlwall Y Modelo De Brechas: Un Modelo Unificado," Documentos de Trabajo - Escuela de Economía 004835, UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE COLOMBIA - RCE. [Downloadable!]
  8. Arslan Razmi, 2005. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: The Case of India," Working Papers 2005-05, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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