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The Euro: reflections on the first three years

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Author Info
Philip Arestis
Andrew Brown
Kostas Mouratidis
Malcolm Sawyer

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Abstract

In the first three years of its (virtual) existence, the euro has seen a general decline in its value (notably against the dollar). In this paper we look at this issue and reflect on the implications of the decline for the future of the euro.The paper begins by briefly reviewing some of the explanations that have been put forward for the weakness of the euro, which might be seen as temporary factors or factors that do not arise from the creation of the eurozone per se. These explanations include the decline in the value of the euro as being a reaction to previous rises, interest rate differentials as favouring the dollar and the decline in the euro as being the obverse of a rise in the value of the dollar reflecting the strength of the US economy. These explanations are found to be unconvincing, and the view is advanced that there are serious weaknesses within the eurozone itself and in the construction of the eurosystem, along with its operation, that could be undermining the value of the euro. The divergent euro area may be one of the more significant factors contributing to the euro decline.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal International Review of Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 16 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-17
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Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:16:y:2002:i:1:p:1-17

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been Falling?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  2. Philip Arestis & Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal & Andrew Brown & Malcolm Sawyer, 2001. "The Causes of Euro Instability," Economics Working Paper Archive 324, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Haug, Alfred A. & MacKinnon, James G. & Michelis, Leo, 2000. "European Monetary Union: a cointegration analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 419-432, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Philip Arestis & Kostas Mouratidis, 2004. "Is There a Trade-Off Between Inflation Variability and Output-Gap Variability in the EMU Countries?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(5), pages 691-706, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Feldstein, Martin, 2000. "The European Central Bank and the Euro: The First Year," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 345-354, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Eichengreen, Barry, 2000. "The Euro One Year On," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 355-368, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jonathan Coppel & Martine Durand & Ignazio Visco, 2000. "EMU, The Euro and The European Policy Mix," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 232, OECD Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. M. Chinn, . "The Empirical Determinants of the Euro: Short and Long Run Perspectives," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2000-43, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  9. Chinn, Menzie D & Alquist, Ron, 2000. "Tracking the Euro's Progress," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 357-73, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2004. "Macroeconomic co-ordination as an economic policy concept - opportunities and obstacles in the EMU," Macroeconomics 0408011, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Paolo PAESANI, 2003. "Will the Monetary Pillar Stay? A Few Lessons from the UK," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/10, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sergio Rossi, 2004. "Monetary integration strategies and perspectives of new EU countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 443-469, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2005. "European Monetary Union: Nominal Convergence, Real Divergence and Slow Growth? An investigation into the effects of changing macroeconomic policy institutions associated with monetary union," Macroeconomics 0501011, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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