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Exports, Non-Exports And Externalities: A Granger Causality Approach

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MICHAEL HUTCHISON
NIRVIKAR SINGH

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Abstract

Illustrated within the context of a dynamic form of the neoclassical two-sector growth model, we show that existing empirical studies may not detect potentially significant externality effects associated with expansion of the export sector because of declining marginal productivity differentials. A time series empirical methodology analyzing the interactions of the non-export sector and export sector is suggested which avoids this problem and isolates potential externality effects. Time series analysis gives results generally favorable to the existence of significant positive externality effects running from export growth to non-export output growth for a significant number of developing economies. [F11]

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Article provided by Korean International Economic Association in its journal International Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 6 (1992)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 79-94
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Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:6:y:1992:i:2:p:79-94

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kravis, Irving B, 1970. "Trade as a Handmaiden of Growth: Similarities between the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 80(323), pages 850-72, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ram, Rati, 1985. "Exports and Economic Growth: Some Additional Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 415-25, January.
  7. Ram, Rati, 1987. "Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Time-Series and Cross-Section Data," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 51-72, October.
  8. Michaely, Michael, 1979. "Exports and growth : A reply," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 141-143, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Judith A. Giles & Cara L. Williams, 2000. "Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results, Part 2," Econometrics Working Papers 0002, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David Romer & Teresa Cyrus, 1996. "Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?," NBER Working Papers 5732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Abu-Qarn, Aamer & Abu-Bader, Suleiman, 2001. "The Validity of the ELG Hypothesis in the MENA Region: Cointegration and Error Correction Model Analysis," MPRA Paper 1116, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Klaus, WAELDE & Christina, WOOD, 2004. "The Empirics of Trade and Growth : Where are the Policy Recommendations ?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2004013, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Judith A. Giles, Cara L. Williams, 2000. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 261-337, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Judith A. Giles, Cara L. Williams, 2000. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Xin Xie, 1996. "Tradable As The Engine Of Growth," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 81-104, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Judith A. Clarke & Mukesh Ralhan, 2005. "Direct and Indirect Causality Between Exports and Economic Output for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka: Horizon Matters," Econometrics Working Papers 0512, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "Estimating the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output," NBER Working Papers 7857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hung-Gay Fung & Bansi Sawhney & Wai-Chung Lo & Pinggui Xiang, 1994. "Exports, Imports And Industrial Production: Evidence From Advanced And Newly Industrializing Countries," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 87-98, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2000. "The International Dimension of African Economic Growth," CID Working Papers 34, Center for International Development at Harvard University. [Downloadable!]
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