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The Causal Relation Between Money And Inflation In A Developing Economy

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ANJUM SIDDIQUI
Abstract

Is there unidirectional causality from money to inflation? This question was examined by using Pakistan as a case study for a developing country. In this paper money was found to be endogenous in Pakistan, and both narrow and broad money indicate a bi-directional relationship with inflation. The causal inferences were examined using alternate causality tests, different prewhitening filters, and different proxies for money and inflation; all of which have direct bearing on the causal inferences. The estimated money inflation feedbacks were interpreted to be "caused” by the link of money and inflation with government budget deficits, balance of payments adjustments and suppressed interest rates. [310]

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Article provided by Korean International Economic Association in its journal International Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 3 (1989)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 79-96
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Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:3:y:1989:i:2:p:79-96

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  1. Mathieson, Donald J., 1980. "Financial reform and stabilization policy in a developing economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 359-395, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Harberger, Arnold C, 1978. "A Primer on Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 505-21, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fry, Maxwell J, 1978. "Money and Capital or Financial Deepening in Economic Development?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 464-75, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Porzecanski, Arturo C, 1979. "Patterns of Monetary Policy in Latin America," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(4), pages 427-37, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Mathieson, Donald J., 1982. "Inflation, interest rates, and the balance of payments during a financial reform: The case of Argentina," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 813-827, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Geweke, John & Meese, Richard & Dent, Warren, 1983. "Comparing alternative tests of causality in temporal systems : Analytic results and experimental evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 161-194, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Guilkey, David K & Salemi, Michael K, 1982. "Small Sample Properties of Three Tests for Granger-Causal Ordering in a Bivariate Stochastic System," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 668-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kapur, Basant K, 1976. "Alternative Stabilization Policies for Less-developed Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(4), pages 777-95, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Feige, Edgar L & Pearce, Douglas K, 1976. "Economically Rational Expectations: Are Innovations in the Rate of Inflation Independent of Innovations in Measures of Monetary and Fiscal Policy?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 499-522, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Van Wijnbergen, S., 1983. "Interest rate management in LDC's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 433-452, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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