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The Persistence Of Japan'S Trade Surplus

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Author Info
CHULHO JUNG
KHOSROW DOROODIAN
Abstract

In this study we use time-series; data to examine the persistence of Japanese trade-balance surplus and the existence of a J-curve effect for the period 1975 (I)--1990 (I). We extend the earlier studies by applying the Shiller lag model to the fust differences, of the variables that are subject to a unit root process. The empirical findings support the J-curve effect for Japan and also illustrate that it lakes 13 quarters before the full effect of an exchange rate change on the trade balance is realized. The results also suggest that in 1985 (I), for example, a once-and-for-all real currency appreciation of 36.2 percent would have removed the average quarterly real trade balance surplus of 2.73 trillion yen in 13 quarters, ceteris paribus . [F30]

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Korean International Economic Association in its journal International Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 12 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 25-38
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Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:12:y:1998:i:1:p:25-38

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  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Noland, Marcus, 1989. "Japanese Trade Elasticities and the J-Curve," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 175-79, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Helen B. Junz & Rudolf R. Rhomberg, 1973. "Price competitiveness in export trade among industrial countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1980-1), pages 143-206. [Downloadable!]
  6. Moffett, Michael H., 1989. "The J-curve revisited: an empirical examination for the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 425-444, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "A Distributed Lag Estimator Derived from Smoothness Priors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 775-88, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-71, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Isard, Peter, 1977. "How Far Can We Push the "Law of One Price"?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 942-48, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ellen E. Meade, 1988. "Exchange rates, adjustment, and the J-curve," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 633-644.
  12. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Junz, Helen B & Rhomberg, Rudolf R, 1973. "Price Competitiveness in Export Trade Among Industrial Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 412-18, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Paul R. Krugman & Richard E. Baldwin, 1987. "The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1987-1), pages 1-56. [Downloadable!]
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