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Predicting the Price Effect of Mergers with Polynomial Logit Demand

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  • Atanu Saha
  • Peter Simon
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    Abstract

    We propose a polynomial logit model to quantify the price effects of mergers in a static Nash setting. The proposed model is parsimonious in parameters and is shown to have excellent predictive power, rivaling the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive accuracy of the widely-used AIDS model.The analysis, using actual scanner data on bread sales, demonstrates that a linear logit model is likely to over-estimate the merger price effect.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/13571510050084497
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Journal of the Economics of Business.

    Volume (Year): 7 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 149-157

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:ijecbs:v:7:y:2000:i:2:p:149-157

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    Related research

    Keywords: Mergers; Antitrust; Discrete Choice; Logit;

    References

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    1. Werden, Gregory J & Froeb, Luke M, 1994. "The Effects of Mergers in Differentiated Products Industries: Logit Demand and Merger Policy," Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 407-26, October.
    2. Werden, Gregory J., 1997. "Simulating The Effects Of Differentiated Products Mergers: A Practitioners' Guide," Proceedings: Strategy and Policy in the Food System: Emerging Issues, June 20-21, 1996, Washington, D.C. 25942, Regional Research Project NE-165 Private Strategies, Public Policies, and Food System Performance.
    3. Werden, Gregory J, 1996. "A Robust Test for Consumer Welfare Enhancing Mergers among Sellers of Differentiated Products," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 409-13, December.
    4. Hausman, Jerry & McFadden, Daniel, 1984. "Specification Tests for the Multinomial Logit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1219-40, September.
    5. Gregory J. WERDEN, 1997. "Simulating The Effects Of Differentiated Products Mergers: A Practitioners' Guide," Department of Resource Economics Regional Research Project 967, University of Massachusetts.
    6. Philip Crooke & Luke Froeb & Steven Tschantz & Gregory Werden, 1999. "Effects of Assumed Demand Form on Simulated Postmerger Equilibria," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 205-217, November.
    7. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
    8. Werden, G.J., 1996. "A Robust Test for Consumer Welfare Enhancing Mergers Among Sellers of Differentiated Products," Papers 96-01, U.S. Department of Justice - Antitrust Division.
    9. Jerry HAUSMAN & Gregory LEONARD & J. Douglas ZONA, 1994. "Competitive Analysis with Differentiated Products," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 34, pages 159-180.
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    Cited by:
    1. Geoffrey Pofahl, 2009. "Merger Simulation in the Presence of Large Choice Sets and Consumer Stockpiling: The Case of the Bottled Juice Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 245-266, May.

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