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Local polynomial inference for small area statistics: estimation, validation and prediction

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  • Stefan Sperlich
  • María José Lombardía

Abstract

Small area statistics has received considerable attention in the last two decades from both public and private sectors. More recently, semiparametric mixed-effects models have been proposed for a more flexible modelling. Surprisingly, although model specification testing is of particular importance in small area statistics, this has been less explored. Its importance is based on the fact that small area statistics applies model-based estimation and prediction. Local polynomials can nest typically used parametric models without bias – independent of the smoothing parameter – and are therefore particularly useful in practice. First, estimation and testing with local polynomials is introduced for mixed-effects models. Several extensions for further structural modelling with dimension-reducing effects are discussed. Second, different computationally attractive specification tests are proposed and compared. The methods are compared along simulation studies. Its usefulness is underpinned by the small-area regression problems of forest stand and farm production.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Sperlich & María José Lombardía, 2010. "Local polynomial inference for small area statistics: estimation, validation and prediction," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 633-648.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:gnstxx:v:22:y:2010:i:5:p:633-648
    DOI: 10.1080/10485250903311607
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ray Chambers & Nikos Tzavidis, 2006. "M-quantile models for small area estimation," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 93(2), pages 255-268, June.
    2. Gerda Claeskens & Jeffrey Hart, 2009. "Rejoinder on: Goodness-of-fit tests in mixed models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 18(2), pages 265-270, August.
    3. María José Lombardía & Stefan Sperlich, 2008. "Semiparametric inference in generalized mixed effects models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(5), pages 913-930, November.
    4. Xihong Lin & Raymond J. Carroll, 2006. "Semiparametric estimation in general repeated measures problems," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(1), pages 69-88, February.
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    6. Gerda Claeskens & Jeffrey Hart, 2009. "Goodness-of-fit tests in mixed models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 18(2), pages 213-239, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wenceslao González-Manteiga & Rosa Crujeiras, 2013. "An updated review of Goodness-of-Fit tests for regression models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 22(3), pages 361-411, September.
    2. Stefan Sperlich, 2013. "Comments on: Model-free model-fitting and predictive distributions," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 22(2), pages 227-233, June.
    3. Stefan Sperlich, 2013. "Comments on: An updated review of Goodness-of-Fit tests for regression models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 22(3), pages 419-427, September.
    4. Gonzales Manteiga, Wenceslao & Maria Dolores, Martinez Miranda & Van Keilegom, Ingrid, 2012. "Goodness-of-fit Test in Parametric Mixed-Effects Models based on the Estimation of the Error Distribution," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2012022, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    5. Isabel Proença & Stefan Sperlich & Duygu Savaşcı, 2015. "Semi-mixed effects gravity models for bilateral trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 361-387, February.
    6. María José Lombardía & Esther López‐Vizcaíno & Cristina Rueda, 2017. "Mixed generalized Akaike information criterion for small area models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(4), pages 1229-1252, October.

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