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Forecasting the returns on UK investment trusts: a comparison

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Author Info
L. Copeland, Ping Wang

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Abstract

The well known fact that investment trusts (closed-end mutual funds in the USA) trade at a discount means that the return to an investor depends not only on the change in net asset value (NAV), but also on changes in the discount over the holding period. Using daily data, this paper models the relationship between UK investment trust prices and NAV's using cointegration methodology then shows that the forecasts based on the, error correction mechanism (ECM) compare poorly with those from vector autoregressions. And then incorporates a number of modifications to the ECM in an attempt to improve the forecasts. In particular, modelling volatility persistance and allow for asymmetric resonses in the ECM.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 6 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 298-310
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Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:6:y:2000:i:3:p:298-310

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Related research
Keywords: Cointegrations Var Mutual Funds Net Asset Value Ecm Garch Asymmetry;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lin, Jin-Lung & Tsay, Ruey S, 1996. "Co-integration Constraint and Forecasting: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 519-38, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 67-112 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ng, Victor K. & Pirrong, Stephen Craig, 1996. "Price dynamics in refined petroleum spot and futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 359-388, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Pontiff, Jeffrey, 1995. "Closed-end fund premia and returns Implications for financial market equilibrium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 341-370, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Samuel Kyle Jones & Mark A. Thompson, 2005. "On conditional volatility transmission among mutual fund portfolios," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(6), pages 339-342, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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